Joe
Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points
POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.comÂ
POET's deal with Lumilens is a $500M validation that could move it from lab tech to commercial scale. The supply and joint development agreement starts with a $50M order for optical engines and could scale to $500M over five years, with samples in late 2026 and volume production in 2027. Its optical interposer integrates electronics and photonics in one chip-scale package, beating power-hungry pluggables. 2026 should be the year of validation, 2027 the year of revenue. x.comÂ
POET Technologies has a path forward after Marvell in 800G/1.6T pluggables, now confirmed by a Lumilens supply and joint development deal. Lumilens placed an initial $50 million order for POET's Electrical-Optical Interposer engines, potentially exceeding $500 million over five years, with a roadmap through near-package and co-packaged optics. Engineering samples are targeted for late 2026 and production in 2027, subject to development and qualification. POET granted Lumilens warrants at $8.25. … Show more
POET Technologies is uninvestable because its management has lost the trust of the big players. In April its CFO leaked information that led to the cancellation of Celestial AI and Marvell contracts. Being early in interposers and packaging does not make it a co-packaged optics winner, as others will catch up. Its TFLN partner QCI trails Hyperlight and is stuck on a 6-inch line, with no 8-inch wafer demo yet to show it can scale. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies and Sivers Semiconductors work as a pair trade, not an either/or. POET is the architecture bet: its optical engines and interposer platform plug into Celestial AI, which Marvell just spent $2B on and which feeds Nvidia; if that stack becomes standard, it is a 10x story. Sivers is the bottleneck beneath it, with InP laser arrays inside Ayar Labs' SuperNova. Every CPO roadmap, pluggable and Celestial engine needs a light source, and that source is Sivers. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is still very early in its growth. Revenue grew 112% year over year with six straight quarters of sequential growth, and it is showcasing new laser light source technology for AI interconnects this week. It is one worth being patient with. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is a weak company because Celestial AI and Marvell are not going to use its technology. x.comÂ
POET Technologies fits the complex networking bottleneck that Elon Musk flagged as harder than finding power for the AI buildout. POET and Lumilens expect to start shipping 800G pluggable transceivers at scale to Lumilens' hyperscaler customers in 2027 to ease the high-speed data connectivity bottleneck. x.comÂ
POET is derisked by confirmation that its customer Lumilens is a large, well-funded hyperscaler supplier. Lumilens emerged from stealth at a $5.5B valuation after raising $700M, with a multi-billion-dollar customer agreement, confirming earlier mapping that it supplies a top-three hyperscaler. POET has a $50M Lumilens purchase order, scalable to $500M, plus contracts with Sivers, on top of its large balance sheet. Lumilens's rise is also great for optical valuations generally. x.comÂ
POET Technologies looks like a short on a pattern of partnerships that counterparties deny. @NMRtweet is short after Marvell, which acquired Celestial AI, cancelled POET's product orders, arguing POET isn't transparent and this isn't the only dead partnership. @kovainvest's timeline lists POET press releases each denied by the counterparty, including Lightwave execs who said they had never heard of POET, and Marvell's cancellation citing a POET NDA breach, which sent shares down 47% in a day. … Show more
Owning Lumentum's laser fab could secure Marvell's FY28 supply and hedge its DSP franchise as optical links shift to CPO. The rumored deal's strategy makes sense, but short-term pain is likely: at a 30% premium, roughly $17.5B in new debt and the rest in stock, rough math puts EPS dilution near 15%. It turns accretive only if Lumentum outgrows Marvell at today's guided rates for five or six more quarters, which looks achievable while the laser shortage lasts. x.com x.com x.comÂ
