Joel
Long-Term Growth Investor & Options Trader
POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is shifting from R&D to execution. Q4 earnings showed 10x year-over-year revenue growth with $430 million in cash. A $5 million-plus production order for POET Infinity optical engines is confirmed, and the company targets more than 30,000 engine shipments in 2026, with the 800G ramp starting in Q3. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is uninvestable because its management has lost the trust of the big players. In April its CFO leaked information that led to the cancellation of Celestial AI and Marvell contracts. Being early in interposers and packaging does not make it a co-packaged optics winner, as others will catch up. Its TFLN partner QCI trails Hyperlight and is stuck on a 6-inch line, with no 8-inch wafer demo yet to show it can scale. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies' setup remains intact despite a 9% weekly drop on good news, and Jim Cramer's call four months ago that it was losing too much money has proven wrong. Since then it raised $150 million, won a Lightwave Innovation Award, partnered with LITEON and signed a 1.6T AI transceiver deal with Lessengers. x.comÂ
POET Technologies fits the complex networking bottleneck that Elon Musk flagged as harder than finding power for the AI buildout. POET and Lumilens expect to start shipping 800G pluggable transceivers at scale to Lumilens' hyperscaler customers in 2027 to ease the high-speed data connectivity bottleneck. x.comÂ
POET is now an unknown after Night Market Research's short report alleged its partnership story is dead, so stepping aside makes sense until management gives verifiable counter-evidence. Per the report, Celestial AI says POET hasn't come up internally since 2023, Foxconn executives stopped using it two years ago, Luxshare executives never heard of it and its Toronto HQ was empty. The optical interconnect bottleneck is real, but Lumentum and Coherent are the durable picks in the subsector. x.com … Show more
POET's deal with Lumilens is a $500M validation that could move it from lab tech to commercial scale. The supply and joint development agreement starts with a $50M order for optical engines and could scale to $500M over five years, with samples in late 2026 and volume production in 2027. Its optical interposer integrates electronics and photonics in one chip-scale package, beating power-hungry pluggables. 2026 should be the year of validation, 2027 the year of revenue. x.comÂ
POET is derisked by confirmation that its customer Lumilens is a large, well-funded hyperscaler supplier. Lumilens emerged from stealth at a $5.5B valuation after raising $700M, with a multi-billion-dollar customer agreement, confirming earlier mapping that it supplies a top-three hyperscaler. POET has a $50M Lumilens purchase order, scalable to $500M, plus contracts with Sivers, on top of its large balance sheet. Lumilens's rise is also great for optical valuations generally. x.comÂ
POET Technologies will likely dilute shareholders soon because it desperately needs to raise cash. That comes after an 80% three-day rally sparked by its CTO confirming an order from Celestial AI. x.comÂ
The market does not understand the potential of Sivers Semiconductors' collaboration with POET Technologies. Per @aleabitoreddit, POET's confirmation of "far in excess" of purchase orders, on top of its Marvell supplier relationships, translates materially to Sivers laser production, and markets have not fully priced in either. x.comÂ