POET Technologies will likely dilute shareholders soon because it desperately needs to raise cash. That comes after an 80% three-day rally sparked by its CTO confirming an order from Celestial AI. x.comÂ
Jorge A.
Stock & Options Trader
POET has lost its anchor customer, and the way it happened signals a company that is a mess from the top down. Marvell canceled all its Celestial orders, including initial production units POET had touted since around 2023, after POET's CFO disclosed confidential information in an interview. Years of heavy dilution add to the damage. $430 million of cash plus a $400 million May raise covers years of burn at about $9 million a quarter, so dilution could ease, but with this management, who knows. … Show more
POET Technologies' rally is incredibly fragile after Marvell canceled all purchase orders tied to Celestial AI, including initial production orders, per @wallstengine. POET says the cancellation stems from alleged confidentiality breaches and that it still serves other customers, including a separate $5M order. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' 47% one-day plunge was self-inflicted, not a technology problem, making it an easy buy. Marvell, which bought Celestial AI in February, pulled Celestial's orders citing a confidentiality breach after POET's CFO confirmed the order on Stocktwits. The stock has since rebounded 211.67% in two weeks. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' Lumilens deal looks weak because Lumilens lacks the cash to pay for its purchase orders and needs POET's stock to soar to cash out. Lumilens has nothing in an ultra-competitive optics sector with China. Claims of billions in orders are false; any Amazon order depends on executing several steps first, while Coherent sells about $5B of optics after 30+ years with access to fabs, lasers and ICs. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies looks like a short on a pattern of partnerships that counterparties deny. @NMRtweet is short after Marvell, which acquired Celestial AI, cancelled POET's product orders, arguing POET isn't transparent and this isn't the only dead partnership. @kovainvest's timeline lists POET press releases each denied by the counterparty, including Lightwave execs who said they had never heard of POET, and Marvell's cancellation citing a POET NDA breach, which sent shares down 47% in a day. … Show more
POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is uninvestable because its management lacks basic judgment, which outweighs having the perfect product at the perfect time. Its CFO breached an NDA by disclosing the Marvell deal himself, and the stock fell nearly 50%, per @StockSavvyShay. There were red flags with this management group even before. Ondas's CEO shows the focus, consistency and trustworthiness investors should look for instead. x.comÂ
POET looks headed toward zero after Marvell cancelled its Celestial AI orders over a confidentiality breach, costing POET basically its only big customer. With only three or four major end customers, who could use COUPE instead, no revenue and ongoing cash burn, its reputation may never recover. The Marvell contract likely helped its $300M-plus raise, so investors may sue for their money back, and the stock could easily fall below $5. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
POET Technologies is still very early in its growth. Revenue grew 112% year over year with six straight quarters of sequential growth, and it is showcasing new laser light source technology for AI interconnects this week. It is one worth being patient with. x.comÂ
POET Technologies carries too much uncertainty after issuing a $400M direct offering right at its all-time high, on top of extreme volatility and continued dilution; it is not one to touch in the near future. That is despite NMR's short report being misleading: per @Scrollingaat, the abandoned office NMR photographed as POET's headquarters belongs to Puzzle Cats, a gaming company on the same floor, while POET's filed address is Suite 1107, 120 Eglinton Ave East, Toronto. x.com x.comÂ