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Asymmetric Bets

Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals

27 Apr, 18:42Latest

POET looks headed toward zero after Marvell cancelled its Celestial AI orders over a confidentiality breach, costing POET basically its only big customer. With only three or four major end customers, who could use COUPE instead, no revenue and ongoing cash burn, its reputation may never recover. The Marvell contract likely helped its $300M-plus raise, so investors may sue for their money back, and the stock could easily fall below $5. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

POET

23 Apr, 13:28

POET makes more sense to own than Sivers at its market cap because POET captures a much larger share of the bill of materials, while Sivers trades at about 30x sales. LPK is a much better bet still, at 3x sales with 70% gross margins, 70-80% market share and a clean balance sheet. x.com

POET

Deep Sail Capital

Founder & CIO of Deep Sail Capital, Long/Short GARP, Quality/Growth/Micro-Caps

18 May

POET

POET Technologies looks like a short on a pattern of partnerships that counterparties deny. @NMRtweet is short after Marvell, which acquired Celestial AI, cancelled POET's product orders, arguing POET isn't transparent and this isn't the only dead partnership. @kovainvest's timeline lists POET press releases each denied by the counterparty, including Lightwave execs who said they had never heard of POET, and Marvell's cancellation citing a POET NDA breach, which sent shares down 47% in a day. … Show more

Johan Ekroth

AI Infrastructure/Space/Defense Investor, Bottleneck Research

27 Apr

POET

POET's place in the optical stack is weaker than its narrative implied, as Marvell's cancellation of all its orders shows. Marvell cited an NDA breach, but critical suppliers don't get fired over disclosure issues; they get a phone call. If POET were load-bearing or a competitive threat, Marvell would keep orders running or buy it outright, not cancel. A Tier-1 customer is a signal, not a moat, and pilot orders are not validation; if switching suppliers costs little, POET doesn't control a node. … Show more

mon

Independent Analyst, High-Risk Small-Cap & Growth Investing

14 May

POET

POET Technologies' 47% one-day plunge was self-inflicted, not a technology problem, making it an easy buy. Marvell, which bought Celestial AI in February, pulled Celestial's orders citing a confidentiality breach after POET's CFO confirmed the order on Stocktwits. The stock has since rebounded 211.67% in two weeks. x.com

Temple 8 Research

AI Buildout, Macro & Energy Infrastructure Research

6 Oct

POET

POET Technologies is uninvestable because its management has lost the trust of the big players. In April its CFO leaked information that led to the cancellation of Celestial AI and Marvell contracts. Being early in interposers and packaging does not make it a co-packaged optics winner, as others will catch up. Its TFLN partner QCI trails Hyperlight and is stuck on a 6-inch line, with no 8-inch wafer demo yet to show it can scale. x.com x.com

Nate Endicott

Retail Investor, AI Infrastructure & Nebius

27 Apr

POET

POET Technologies' management team is inept, and management quality is make-or-break for investing in a company. POET breached its NDA with Marvell by confirming a purchase order after a short report, and Marvell then cancelled all its Celestial AI orders, per @Kaizen_Investor, sending the stock down almost 50%. x.com x.com

Joe

Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points

25 Mar

POET

POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.com

Jimmy Investor

Former Equity Analyst

27 Apr

POET

POET Technologies' rally is incredibly fragile after Marvell canceled all purchase orders tied to Celestial AI, including initial production orders, per @wallstengine. POET says the cancellation stems from alleged confidentiality breaches and that it still serves other customers, including a separate $5M order. x.com

CryptoCondom

Crypto Market Commentary

27 Apr

POET

POET Technologies' management can't be trusted and the company is likely to be blackballed in the near term. As @amitisinvesting recounts, its CFO disclosed a Marvell order on a podcast, sending the stock from $6.80 to $17, before Marvell called it a breach of confidentiality and the shares fell 45% in a day. x.com

Gabz

Stock & Crypto Trader, SuperTrend Indicator Owner

20 Mar

POET

POET Technologies' setup remains intact despite a 9% weekly drop on good news, and Jim Cramer's call four months ago that it was losing too much money has proven wrong. Since then it raised $150 million, won a Lightwave Innovation Award, partnered with LITEON and signed a 1.6T AI transceiver deal with Lessengers. x.com

Daniel Romero

Technology Equity Analyst, Semiconductors/Data Centers/Physical AI

27 Apr

POET

POET Technologies' optical interposer is probably not that good, judging by Marvell cancelling all orders over an NDA breach. If the technology were mission-critical, production-ready and hard to replace in a tight supply chain, Marvell would likely have preserved the relationship through penalties or renegotiated terms; cancelling suggests it had alternatives. Its CEO also owns only 0.0083% of the float, less than some individual investors. x.com x.com x.com x.com

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