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Independent Analyst, High-Risk Small-Cap & Growth Investing
POET Technologies' 47% one-day plunge was self-inflicted, not a technology problem, making it an easy buy. Marvell, which bought Celestial AI in February, pulled Celestial's orders citing a confidentiality breach after POET's CFO confirmed the order on Stocktwits. The stock has since rebounded 211.67% in two weeks. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.comÂ
River Eletec's speculative AI/HPC-adjacent technology looks worth more than its $38 million market cap. Its low-jitter 1.6T product may be sampled by Marvell, though that is a guess; past earnings have been disastrous. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies' management team is inept, and management quality is make-or-break for investing in a company. POET breached its NDA with Marvell by confirming a purchase order after a short report, and Marvell then cancelled all its Celestial AI orders, per @Kaizen_Investor, sending the stock down almost 50%. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies' setup remains intact despite a 9% weekly drop on good news, and Jim Cramer's call four months ago that it was losing too much money has proven wrong. Since then it raised $150 million, won a Lightwave Innovation Award, partnered with LITEON and signed a 1.6T AI transceiver deal with Lessengers. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is still very early in its growth. Revenue grew 112% year over year with six straight quarters of sequential growth, and it is showcasing new laser light source technology for AI interconnects this week. It is one worth being patient with. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' customer concentration risk is now becoming reality. Its Celestial AI partnership was never enough to justify owning it, since POET does not execute at Marvell's level and carried clear customer concentration risk. x.comÂ
POET Technologies has a path forward after Marvell in 800G/1.6T pluggables, now confirmed by a Lumilens supply and joint development deal. Lumilens placed an initial $50 million order for POET's Electrical-Optical Interposer engines, potentially exceeding $500 million over five years, with a roadmap through near-package and co-packaged optics. Engineering samples are targeted for late 2026 and production in 2027, subject to development and qualification. POET granted Lumilens warrants at $8.25. … Show more
Marvell's risk/reward is no longer favorable after the stock ran three to four times from the $70s in March, when it was the most obviously undervalued chip stock. Jensen Huang's call for a $1T company is partly driven by his dislike of Broadcom's Hock Tan, and the Celestial AI angle is overhyped relative to the value it adds. A bounce is likely from here, but there is no case for adding exposure at the current price. x.com x.com x.comÂ
POET's bull case is crushed after Marvell cancelled POET purchase orders tied to Celestial AI following a confidentiality breach. That shifts the focus back to sourcing lasers directly from the scarce CPO laser supplier base. x.com x.comÂ
AI optics stocks have big upside as Goldman Sachs' April 2026 AI optical report says the industry will grow 10-fold through 2028. The favored names to buy on the next 10% dip are POET Technologies, AXT, Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum, Coherent and MACOM. x.comÂ
