Japan Deep Value
Japanese Equity Research, Deep Value & Below-Book Opportunities
A rising value of compute per watt should benefit AI cloud, chip, connectivity and power suppliers. Elon Musk says that value will rise over time. Nebius has Microsoft and Meta deals; Marvell benefits from custom silicon demand; Credo connects GPUs; Vistra has long-term nuclear supply deals with Amazon and Meta; Nokia's Nvidia partnership could help it capture data-center networking growth. x.com x.comÂ
The market may still be underestimating Marvell as it becomes a key supplier of custom silicon and connectivity for the AI build-out. At its Investor Day, Marvell put its addressable market at about $400 billion by 2030, targeted about $20B of FY28 revenue and said revenue could reach $70-90B by FY31. Last quarter revenue rose 37% to $2.74B on AI and data-center demand, and Nvidia's Jensen Huang reportedly called Marvell the next trillion-dollar company. x.com x.comÂ
Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Marvell's new six-channel chips could ease AI servers' memory constraint by letting them add capacity for bigger models and longer prompts. Samples are expected in Q1 2027. Its custom silicon and connectivity could capture more AI infrastructure spending, though competition and customer bargaining limit retained value. x.comÂ
Marvell's end-to-end networking approach is well suited to heterogeneous GPU, CPU and ASIC compute and mixed optical/copper technologies. Its shift from AI loser to winner deserves a lot of credit: its old custom-ASIC focus had lost out to Broadcom and Alchip, but it is now back in ASICs as Google's TPU v10 partner. The stock's excellent run reflects how it is now perceived. x.comÂ
Marvell can become the next $1 trillion company, which makes the investing case simple. Jensen Huang was cited as saying so, and even if that comment actually referred to AMD, Marvell can still reach the mark. x.com x.comÂ
Marvell's $70-90 billion FY31 revenue target looks credible: COO Chris Koopmans said key foundry, substrate and packaging suppliers get five-year forecasts and had already seen it before investor day. A $500 price target still looks too aggressive for now; Marvell must show it can grow its networking and photonics segment to deserve a safe price increase. x.com x.comÂ
Marvell is being repriced as a core AI infrastructure holding after record results, with the bull case shifting from custom silicon toward networking and optics. Fresh June targets run $321-$385, led by KeyBanc's Street-high $385 on data center networking, scale-up and the $3.25 billion Celestial AI optical acquisition; the $236 average target is lagging, not bearish. The catch: the stock already trades above that average, and KeyBanc calls the custom XPU business less durable long term. x.comÂ
Marvell's valuation still reflects old cyclical models, overlooking an AI-driven structural shift that leaves room for a re-rating. Marvell focuses on AI networking and custom silicon, with data center above 70% of revenue and a lead in photonics interconnects, while long-term agreements secure demand and reduce cyclicality. Its EPS growth depends on execution. x.comÂ
Marvell builds the chips for the data-center pipes that AI keeps choking, and its numbers now show that thesis. Last quarter's revenue grew 36%. At 40 times forward earnings the stock is no longer cheap, so further gains must come from earnings growth. x.comÂ