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Marvell's end-to-end networking approach is well suited to heterogeneous GPU, CPU and ASIC compute and mixed optical/copper technologies. Its shift from AI loser to winner deserves a lot of credit: its old custom-ASIC focus had lost out to Broadcom and Alchip, but it is now back in ASICs as Google's TPU v10 partner. The stock's excellent run reflects how it is now perceived. x.comÂ
Marvell's prepaid capacity commitment with AT&S is a good sign of demand, making the partnership more bullish for Marvell than for AT&S, which would have filled that capacity sooner or later anyway. The big question is why Marvell needs large, advanced substrates from AT&S; a TPU program is the obvious guess. x.comÂ
Broader adoption of custom AI silicon could benefit Broadcom and Marvell. OpenAI reportedly plans to expand its use of Google's TPUs beyond Nvidia GPUs, and Google TPUs are coming to Oracle Cloud in 2027. Both are potential tailwinds for custom-chip suppliers. x.comÂ
Broadcom and Marvell look like the big winners as Wall Street newly appreciates custom AI chips. Marvell surged 33% after Nvidia's Jensen Huang called it the next trillion-dollar company, and Broadcom rose 4.7% before earnings. Broadcom holds about 70% of the ASIC market, serving Google's TPUs, Meta, Microsoft and OpenAI, at 25x 2027 earnings with 22% expected EPS growth to 2030. Marvell has a 15-20% share, serving Amazon, Microsoft and Google, at 47x 2027 earnings with 40% expected growth. … Show more
Marvell's management is running the stock as a pump and dump to move shareholders' money into their own pockets. Wall Street prices Marvell as an ASIC design house without realizing that ASIC design is just IT outsourcing. It is not a real CXL play either: CXL IP is sold by Cadence, Synopsys and Rambus with no moat, and Astera Labs, which builds the switches and software around CXL, is the only good CXL play. x.comÂ
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.comÂ
A rising value of compute per watt should benefit AI cloud, chip, connectivity and power suppliers. Elon Musk says that value will rise over time. Nebius has Microsoft and Meta deals; Marvell benefits from custom silicon demand; Credo connects GPUs; Vistra has long-term nuclear supply deals with Amazon and Meta; Nokia's Nvidia partnership could help it capture data-center networking growth. x.com x.comÂ
Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.comÂ
Marvell expects its revenue to grow tenfold in five years to $80B, driven by custom chips it builds for hyperscalers. Those companies design their own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia and cut the long-term cost of off-the-shelf parts. The custom segment had no revenue two years ago and is expected to bring in $30B by 2031. x.comÂ
A potential Lumentum acquisition could let Marvell pair custom AI chips with the optical infrastructure connecting them. Following Celestial AI, it could become one of the few companies offering both, moving toward an AI-focused version of Broadcom; financing a deal this large remains a major concern. x.comÂ
Marvell is a loser from the AI-lab slowdown, because it can't earn premium margins if Nvidia and Broadcom also see a pause. Lab leaders including Elon Musk, Dario Amodei and Sam Altman have pivoted to warning that AI could kill you, which, with AI already polling badly, will make it much harder for AI to attract investment. x.comÂ
Broadcom's integrated optics, electronics and packaging could lower custom-chip system costs because separate suppliers defend their margins. At similar valuations, it is preferred to Nvidia and has more room to beat expectations. Google TPU v8 shipments are estimated at 4.0M in 2026 and 9.1M in 2027, assuming Broadcom supplies the remainder after MediaTek's allocation. Anthropic financing adds value only if chip profit exceeds likely support payments and capacity costs. x.com x.comÂ
