Vlad Bastion
Founder of Investment Bastion, Systematic Stock Ratings & Algorithmic Portfolios
Marvell expects its revenue to grow tenfold in five years to $80B, driven by custom chips it builds for hyperscalers. Those companies design their own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia and cut the long-term cost of off-the-shelf parts. The custom segment had no revenue two years ago and is expected to bring in $30B by 2031. x.com
Marvell's growth case rests on climbing orders for custom AI chips, with management seeing a $10 billion custom silicon revenue opportunity in 2028, up from about $1.5-2.5 billion today. Scale-out switching should add another $1 billion by 2028, and data-center interconnect modules should grow from $500 million to $1 billion. Total revenue is expected to rise from $8 billion to $22 billion by FY2029, a 39% CAGR. At 46x forward and 31x expected 2029 earnings, it is not cheap but reasonable. x.com
The market may still be underestimating Marvell as it becomes a key supplier of custom silicon and connectivity for the AI build-out. At its Investor Day, Marvell put its addressable market at about $400 billion by 2030, targeted about $20B of FY28 revenue and said revenue could reach $70-90B by FY31. Last quarter revenue rose 37% to $2.74B on AI and data-center demand, and Nvidia's Jensen Huang reportedly called Marvell the next trillion-dollar company. x.com x.com
Marvell is a 2030 stock: the market sold it 32% off its high because the payoff starts in 2029. Data center is 79% of revenue and growing 46%. Management raised its fiscal 2028 target to $18B, said custom silicon more than doubles next year, and in August signed a Google TPU agreement with up to $120B of revenue potential over six years. x.com
Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.com
A rising value of compute per watt should benefit AI cloud, chip, connectivity and power suppliers. Elon Musk says that value will rise over time. Nebius has Microsoft and Meta deals; Marvell benefits from custom silicon demand; Credo connects GPUs; Vistra has long-term nuclear supply deals with Amazon and Meta; Nokia's Nvidia partnership could help it capture data-center networking growth. x.com x.com
The Lumentum merger makes Marvell's path toward a $1 trillion valuation look clearer if it executes well. Jensen Huang had called Marvell the next $1 trillion company. Lumentum's demand is sold for the next two to three years, though whether that gives Marvell an edge remains an open question. Marvell looks like a long-term opportunity, but the route to building a position is still unclear. x.com
Marvell's ambitious long-range outlook is encouraging about hyperscaler and AI-lab spending plans, but hitting it depends on AI revenue and token consumption soaring through decade's end. Even if its FY28 estimates rise again, Marvell trades at a healthy premium to Nvidia and Broadcom, especially on a GAAP basis, and those two are growing fast too. x.com
Marvell is positioned for AI's next bottleneck, connectivity, as larger AI compute, agentic AI and reasoning models drive surging demand to link GPUs and XPUs at ultra-high speed. Its CEO said Marvell is next after memory and set its 2030 addressable market at $400 billion, about four times the prior figure, the most bullish recent commentary. Marvell is Nvidia's pick as the next trillion-dollar company. x.com
Marvell's end-to-end networking approach is well suited to heterogeneous GPU, CPU and ASIC compute and mixed optical/copper technologies. Its shift from AI loser to winner deserves a lot of credit: its old custom-ASIC focus had lost out to Broadcom and Alchip, but it is now back in ASICs as Google's TPU v10 partner. The stock's excellent run reflects how it is now perceived. x.com
Marvell's $1 trillion valuation, which Jensen Huang predicted, is a slogan rather than a valuation. At its FY2028 targets of $16.5B revenue and a high-30s operating margin, $1T means about 60x sales and 180x adjusted earnings; at 30x earnings it would need roughly $95B of revenue, essentially the entire $94B 2028 data center market Marvell estimates. GAAP net income was just $34.5M in Q1, and dilution adds pressure. Operating leverage from 45% growth is the bull case. x.com
Broader adoption of custom AI silicon could benefit Broadcom and Marvell. OpenAI reportedly plans to expand its use of Google's TPUs beyond Nvidia GPUs, and Google TPUs are coming to Oracle Cloud in 2027. Both are potential tailwinds for custom-chip suppliers. x.com
