Ren
Head of AI, Ex-Product Manager, AI Supply-Chain Bottlenecks
POET Technologies and Sivers Semiconductors work as a pair trade, not an either/or. POET is the architecture bet: its optical engines and interposer platform plug into Celestial AI, which Marvell just spent $2B on and which feeds Nvidia; if that stack becomes standard, it is a 10x story. Sivers is the bottleneck beneath it, with InP laser arrays inside Ayar Labs' SuperNova. Every CPO roadmap, pluggable and Celestial engine needs a light source, and that source is Sivers. x.comÂ
The market does not understand the potential of Sivers Semiconductors' collaboration with POET Technologies. Per @aleabitoreddit, POET's confirmation of "far in excess" of purchase orders, on top of its Marvell supplier relationships, translates materially to Sivers laser production, and markets have not fully priced in either. x.comÂ
Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies is uninvestable because its management has lost the trust of the big players. In April its CFO leaked information that led to the cancellation of Celestial AI and Marvell contracts. Being early in interposers and packaging does not make it a co-packaged optics winner, as others will catch up. Its TFLN partner QCI trails Hyperlight and is stuck on a 6-inch line, with no 8-inch wafer demo yet to show it can scale. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.comÂ
POET's new Lumilens partnership gives it real orders and firm footing in both indium phosphide and silicon photonics AI optics. The jointly developed electrical-optical interposer upgrades its silicon photonics compatibility, so it can build engines from either top-tier InP/EML parts or Lumilens silicon photonics chips on the same wafer-scale base. It is a measured hedge as InP supply tightens, without abandoning its core optical interposer for discrete InP engines. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' Lumilens deal looks weak because Lumilens lacks the cash to pay for its purchase orders and needs POET's stock to soar to cash out. Lumilens has nothing in an ultra-competitive optics sector with China. Claims of billions in orders are false; any Amazon order depends on executing several steps first, while Coherent sells about $5B of optics after 30+ years with access to fabs, lasers and ICs. x.com x.comÂ
POET's deal with Lumilens is a $500M validation that could move it from lab tech to commercial scale. The supply and joint development agreement starts with a $50M order for optical engines and could scale to $500M over five years, with samples in late 2026 and volume production in 2027. Its optical interposer integrates electronics and photonics in one chip-scale package, beating power-hungry pluggables. 2026 should be the year of validation, 2027 the year of revenue. x.comÂ
Sivers is less exposed to tighter AI financing because its 700M SEK raise funds a buildout largely reliant on external foundries. It is qualifying with Ayar, Jabil, GlobalFoundries and O-Net for potential tier-one hyperscaler pluggable, CPO and NPO deployments. Higher rates may strain neoclouds needing billions for GPUs, but optical content and aggregate demand should still rise even if hyperscaler AI capex falls, especially as new players start qualification. x.comÂ
POET Technologies looks like a short on a pattern of partnerships that counterparties deny. @NMRtweet is short after Marvell, which acquired Celestial AI, cancelled POET's product orders, arguing POET isn't transparent and this isn't the only dead partnership. @kovainvest's timeline lists POET press releases each denied by the counterparty, including Lightwave execs who said they had never heard of POET, and Marvell's cancellation citing a POET NDA breach, which sent shares down 47% in a day. … Show more
POET Technologies fits the complex networking bottleneck that Elon Musk flagged as harder than finding power for the AI buildout. POET and Lumilens expect to start shipping 800G pluggable transceivers at scale to Lumilens' hyperscaler customers in 2027 to ease the high-speed data connectivity bottleneck. x.comÂ
