Danny cheng
Technology Investor, Homily Charts & Technical Analysis
BlackBerry's chart shows a completed base and resumed uptrend, with whale accumulation rising to 63.9%. Volatility holes at $7.2 and $7.8 marked early bottoming, and price retested their lower boundary before momentum resumed; the bullish ribbon has kept expanding since price cleared the critical momentum bar near $8.9. Momentum bars at $10.4 and $11.4 are mid-term resistance. x.com
BlackBerry held the lower boundary of its volatility range and rallied with steady whale accumulation, so the next test is whether it can clear the upper boundary and start another leg higher. The range runs from $7.40 to $9.35; BlackBerry tested $7.40 without closing below it. Momentum resistance sits at $9.28 near term and $11.52 mid term. It is a slower but easy stock to buy and hold for those with conviction in the company. x.com
BlackBerry's substantial lead over prospective entrants in its niche leaves no reason for its shares to trade below $25, a somewhat conservative minimum. x.com
BlackBerry's earnings beat could carry the stock through the descending trendline that has stopped every rally. EPS of $0.06 beat the $0.04 estimate and doubled year over year, and revenue of $156 million beat $144.55 million, up 10%. Resistance sits at $4.00-4.15; a break opens the way to $4.39 at the 200 EMA, with support at $3.79. x.com
BlackBerry's turnaround is real, but the stock already prices in a lot of execution that hasn't shown up in the numbers. QNX revenue rose 20% to a record $78.7 million, its royalty backlog hit $950 million, and a deeper Nvidia deal takes QNX into robotics, medical and industrial systems. But after a roughly 140% gain it trades above 100x earnings, most analysts rate it Hold with targets about 50% below the price, and growth still leans on autos, exposed to tariffs and slower car production. … Show more
BlackBerry's $1.2B QNX backlog looks substantial against its $5B market cap. Quarter-over-quarter earnings growth, positive EBITDA and its Nvidia physical-AI and robotics RTOS partnership underpin the bullish case. x.com x.com
BlackBerry is probably a good long-term bet as an unexpected winner of its pivot from phones to isolated operating systems, whose target markets of robotics, autonomous vehicles and space travel are all growing. The chart also looks bullish, with a clear inverse head-and-shoulders bottom in 2024, several breakouts and gaps up, and the price now above many key support levels. Its market cap is around $5.5B. x.com x.com x.com x.com
BlackBerry is expensive against its cash earnings, trading at 42 times this year's and 38 times next year's, while software companies usually get about 30. Fair value runs about $6.05 to $7.70, or 30 times next year's cash earnings, so at $8.73 buyers pay roughly 13% above the top of that range; above $10.18 it is expensive. x.com
BlackBerry should benefit as Qualcomm turns super bullish on automotive growing a lot next year, since BlackBerry's QNX operating system runs inside cars. Per @anni_sen, QNX is a safety-critical layer in cars, medical devices and robots whose long certification keeps it designed in for years, and BlackBerry won the contract to power Johnson & Johnson's AI-driven heart pump. The stock fell 6% after earnings. x.com
BlackBerry's QNX royalty backlog above $1.2B gives greater visibility into future high-margin software revenue. It rose 26% in two quarters, reflecting demand in software-defined vehicles and potential for more royalties per vehicle, with opportunities in autonomous systems and robotics. The backlog is not guaranteed revenue. x.com
BlackBerry's re-rating case is getting more tangible after a print that delivered the evidence it needed. QNX revenue rose 27%, it landed its largest-ever design win, and operating cash-flow guidance went up. It wasn't perfect, since Secure Communications still needs work, but the long stance holds. x.com
BlackBerry, Ouster and FuelCell Energy are each uniquely positioned in niche industries and are finally making significant fundamental progress after years of stagnation, as all three hit 52-week highs. BlackBerry's QNX is moving from automotive to robotics, Ouster is the leading lidar name and FuelCell has been securing deals. Their strong technical moves are backed by just enough fundamental and quantitative momentum. x.com
