The yen's intervention-driven rally looks weak and likely to fade, with USD/JPY possibly back near 160 soon. The Fed's EUR/JPY sale came after 4pm on a dead July Friday, signaling weakness speculators will test. Japan is slow-walking supporting policy such as rate hikes or repatriation incentives, and Bessent wants a lower USD/JPY without the US asset drawdown repatriation brings. If USD/JPY fails to regain 160 soon, though, the yen could rally hard, with spec shorts at record extremes. x.com  … Show more

Japan's yen interventions only buy time, so the yen is likely to keep weakening until the Bank of Japan actually moves. Reserves only help while rates stay pinned, and each round costs reserves Japan can't replace while buying less time, making intervention a speed bump for the carry trade. Japan did not save USD/JPY 160 but rented time at it; once 162 prints, the intervention narrative dies. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The yen looks set to keep strengthening against the dollar, because Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears determined to push USD/JPY lower. Bessent said in an interview that as "the house" he knows exactly what Japan, the Bank of Japan and its policymakers will do when the US intervenes in the yen, and dared markets to bet against him. As a former fund manager who helped successfully attack the pound and the Thai baht, he holds a real information advantage. x.com 

The yen remains weak, with the dollar already back above 160 yen, and if the Fed hikes, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will have to buy Japanese government bonds along with the yen. Bessent has said a disorderly yen could ultimately raise US rates. x.com 

The yen looks set to weaken further, with dollar-yen creeping beyond the 160 level, as the Fed turns more hawkish. The Fed removed its statement reference to additional rate adjustments, nine of 18 FOMC participants pencil in a 2026 rate hike, and the SOFR curve is ripping higher. x.com 

The US dollar is unlikely to break out in the short term without a catalyst. An in-line PCE print pulled down 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, the dollar index sits at major resistance at its May 2025 high, USD/JPY at 162 is a critical level for the Bank of Japan to defend, and currencies move slower than bonds. A reopened Strait of Hormuz would also help Europe and the euro recover, adding pressure; that favors short-term longs in gold and emerging markets. x.com  x.com 

The US needs a weaker yen, so Treasury Secretary Bessent's visible note to "Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5-10 bil," chickenfeed in any case, looks like a psyop and misdirect, calling for the opposite positioning; the buying was a chunk of carry trade to close. Per @TreasuryBonds1, Japan reportedly spent about $53 billion buying yen in a single day, its largest intervention ever, and Bessent called the yen very undervalued. x.com  x.com 

The US dollar should go higher because the Fed will have to hike and oil is rising, keeping a 105 DXY target intact. Long-end yields rose by the equivalent of a rate hike even as the short end fell. Recent weakness looks like a positioning unwind plus a suspected Bank of Japan yen intervention, a 3.5% move in two hours. The 100 range on DXY needs to hold. x.com  x.com 

The yen is strengthening sharply toward ¥153-154 as the Bank of Japan hikes rates and intervenes, starting to unwind the global carry trade funded by cheap yen. That is not a normal FX move but a systemic margin call on every leveraged position funded in yen, with the BOJ now playing its own game rather than following the Fed. x.com 

The Japanese yen is weakening again despite the coordinated Bank of Japan and US Treasury intervention, having given back about 38% of the manufactured gain. More government intervention looks likely soon as the currency slides. x.com  x.com