The yen remains weak, with the dollar already back above 160 yen, and if the Fed hikes, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will have to buy Japanese government bonds along with the yen. Bessent has said a disorderly yen could ultimately raise US rates. x.com 

The US dollar's strength against the yen is a trend, as the Bank of Japan neither wants nor dares to reveal its hand. It is avoiding a clear 160 line and instead trying hit-and-run moves against yen shorts, and it is unclear whether it will actually strike. There is little basis for a sustained yen rally; even if it intervenes, its realistic approach is to fight while retreating, unless Fed policy clearly pivots, and Fed chair Warsh does not seem to want to give markets a clear signal. x.com  … Show more

The yen looks set to keep strengthening against the dollar, because Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears determined to push USD/JPY lower. Bessent said in an interview that as "the house" he knows exactly what Japan, the Bank of Japan and its policymakers will do when the US intervenes in the yen, and dared markets to bet against him. As a former fund manager who helped successfully attack the pound and the Thai baht, he holds a real information advantage. x.com 

The yen's intervention-driven rally looks weak and likely to fade, with USD/JPY possibly back near 160 soon. The Fed's EUR/JPY sale came after 4pm on a dead July Friday, signaling weakness speculators will test. Japan is slow-walking supporting policy such as rate hikes or repatriation incentives, and Bessent wants a lower USD/JPY without the US asset drawdown repatriation brings. If USD/JPY fails to regain 160 soon, though, the yen could rally hard, with spec shorts at record extremes. x.com  … Show more

The yen stays weak because intervention cannot fix Japan's deeply negative real rates and a sluggish central bank. Japan deployed up to $95.6 billion over two days, and joint intervention with the US Treasury briefly lifted the yen about 2.8%, but about 85% of that rally has evaporated, with USD/JPY back near 159. The yen has lost 30.6% against the dollar in five years. Intervention did warn speculators off the 160-164 zone, and yen net shorts fell $8.865 billion in a week, the most since 2014. … Show more

The yen looks set to strengthen sharply, with USD/JPY heading to 130. The call comes as hedge funds turned the most negative on the yen since 2007, per CFTC data cited by @financialjuice. x.com 

The US needs a weaker yen, so Treasury Secretary Bessent's visible note to "Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5-10 bil," chickenfeed in any case, looks like a psyop and misdirect, calling for the opposite positioning; the buying was a chunk of carry trade to close. Per @TreasuryBonds1, Japan reportedly spent about $53 billion buying yen in a single day, its largest intervention ever, and Bessent called the yen very undervalued. x.com  x.com 

The yen keeps falling despite rate hikes because Japan's debt load means higher rates strain the budget rather than support the currency. The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1% in June, the highest since 1995, yet the yen fell to a 40-year low near 164, with interest eating a quarter of Japan's budget. Since February, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's supermajority has opened the spending taps, including a pledge to suspend the food sales tax, adding big spending into a jittery bond market. x.com  … Show more

Going long the Japanese yen is the best trade on earth right now, because US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will step in to save it, with swap lines and similar measures. The yen's slide has become severe enough that Japan needs to raise rates. x.com  x.com 

The yen remains under pressure, and the Bank of Japan's record interventions look increasingly hard to sustain. Japan's foreign exchange reserves fell by $77 billion after record interventions in May. The BOJ wants demand-driven inflation from rising wages and consumption, but a sliding yen risks supply-side inflation instead, leaving it between a rock and a hard place. x.com  x.com