Nike just can't compete the way it used to: it no longer captures the market it once did, and that clearly isn't changing any time soon. The post-earnings reaction went as expected, with the stock already at its lowest since 2014 going in. x.com  x.com 

Nike destroyed its brand with its direct-to-consumer push during Covid, one of the dumbest strategic mistakes by any megacap. Pulling Nike shoes from stores let consumers try On, Asics, Hoka, New Balance and others. Nike is not dead, but it may not be able to put the genie back in the bottle. Its latest report, per @HeyAlvaAI, showed Nike Direct sales down 8%, Greater China down 22% and a forecast high-single-digit revenue decline for the year. x.com 

Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Nike's turnaround is looking much longer than bulls expected, and about 17x forward earnings is not cheap for a business growing low single digits. China sales fell 26% FX-neutral while Adidas' Greater China sales grew 15%, pointing to a Nike problem, not a China problem. Sportswear fell low double digits with Dunk revenue down about 50%, Jordan fell mid-teens, and most PACE savings are expected only in FY29-30; Performance grew high single digits. The must-buy price is $25. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike is still super expensive even if it pulls a magic trick on margins, and the stock has been a buy-the-dip nightmare because the brand became uncool. It can keep existing while slowly fading, which is a terrible investment case. x.com  x.com 

Nike is setting up for a reversal as sentiment hits an extreme. It has been a long time since so many people dunked on a stock whose apparel is used so widely every day around the world, even as Nike is the only Dow stock down over the past decade, by 32.5%. x.com 

Nike is a stagnant company losing pricing power, pointing to more tough years for shareholders. Revenue fell 4% last quarter, the only line still shrinking while gross margin expanded, inventory fell 3% and North America grew 2%, per the quoted post. x.com 

Nike sells expensive products of poor quality, which no longer works after 2010, when brands must offer either cheap goods or expensive quality. Gen Z and younger consumers care far less about the brand than 1980s and 1990s kids did, and the stock is back at 2014 levels, a decade erased. x.com 

Nike's push to reposition as a premium sports brand looks like the right route to recovery, including in Greater China. New CFO Dave Denton was clearer, and Alex Arnault's board seat, Jordan's return to scarcity, elite athlete deals and less discounting support it. EPS was fairly strong and margins are improving; guidance looks set deliberately low to beat, since management says the decline largely stems from its own choices. The dividend is safe; a full turnaround may take 3-5 years. x.com  … Show more

Nike, like other apparel makers, is uninvestable because a durable moat is near impossible in this business. Consumer preferences keep changing, requiring constant new marketing to keep people excited, and making a physical product leaves an inherently low-margin business with little long-term pricing power. A major turnaround is possible, but the business model gives no confidence in its long-term strength. x.com