Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Nike's dividend yield, now high versus its ten-year history, is the new question for investors and makes the stock very interesting at these levels. The numbers have not bottomed, guidance was atrocious and parts of the business are getting worse, offset somewhat by better US wholesale. The guidance implies Nike will use some cash to fund the dividend, but it has plenty. The stock remains too expensive on earnings and too cheap on dividend yield. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike's fundamentals have not yet followed, and insider buying by CEO Elliott Hill and board member Tim Cook did not fix the business. Q1 revenue fell about 4% to $11.2B, with China down 26%, Nike Sportswear down low double digits and Jordan down mid-teens. Management warned China could get worse and some turnaround pain could extend into fiscal 2028. Performance grew high single digits, running double digits and North America returned to growth, so Nike is not being written off. x.com 

Nike's valuation pays investors to wait for a turnaround that will take longer than expected. It trades at just 16x earnings, near its lowest valuation ever, with a roughly 5% dividend yield, and would need a 127% rally to regain its 200-week moving average. Revenue is projected to fall another 4% in FY2027, but the business will grow again; the market prices it as if it were disappearing. Unlike Novo Nordisk, Nike faces no patent cliff. x.com  x.com 

Nike under $40 is getting very interesting because expectations have fallen so low, often where the best risk/reward shows up. The stock closed at its lowest since 2014, about 78% below its all-time high. The turnaround is not finished: FY26 revenue was basically flat, Nike Direct is still shrinking and China remains a major problem. But wholesale revenue grew 6% for the year as Nike rebuilds retailer relationships. This is not a call on the bottom. x.com 

Nike might not bottom until it cuts or eliminates its dividend, since net income is down 75% over five years and it cannot afford the payout. This could be one of the hardest turnarounds ever: it is getting clobbered on all fronts, China won't be coming back soon, products need a serious makeover and it overpays too many pro athletes. It needs to preserve cash, bring in new people and ideas, and find a way to bring excitement back to the brand. x.com  x.com 

Nike is one successful marketing campaign away from a full turnaround. Per @TheLongInvest, it is among the most hated stocks, deep below its 200-month moving average at a 12-year low, with insiders including Tim Cook buying, a 4% dividend and one of the world's strongest brands. x.com 

Nike could re-rate aggressively if it finds a way to re-accelerate growth, which makes it start to look attractive here. China is still a problem, and the dividend yield is now 4.3%. x.com 

Nike, like other apparel makers, is uninvestable because a durable moat is near impossible in this business. Consumer preferences keep changing, requiring constant new marketing to keep people excited, and making a physical product leaves an inherently low-margin business with little long-term pricing power. A major turnaround is possible, but the business model gives no confidence in its long-term strength. x.com 

Nike's valuation premium has been squeezed out just as CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround shows traction. P/S near 1.3x is a decade low, P/E is about 20x, and a 3.8% yield gives downside protection; Morningstar rates it Wide Moat with fair value above $90. North American wholesale revenue rose 10%, and Foot Locker's first positive same-store sales in four years suggest the wholesale repair is working. Curbing AJ1 and Dunk supply rebuilds scarcity, and the fall Investor Day could flip expectations. … Show more