Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Nike's push to reposition as a premium sports brand looks like the right route to recovery, including in Greater China. New CFO Dave Denton was clearer, and Alex Arnault's board seat, Jordan's return to scarcity, elite athlete deals and less discounting support it. EPS was fairly strong and margins are improving; guidance looks set deliberately low to beat, since management says the decline largely stems from its own choices. The dividend is safe; a full turnaround may take 3-5 years. x.com  … Show more

Nike, like other apparel makers, is uninvestable because a durable moat is near impossible in this business. Consumer preferences keep changing, requiring constant new marketing to keep people excited, and making a physical product leaves an inherently low-margin business with little long-term pricing power. A major turnaround is possible, but the business model gives no confidence in its long-term strength. x.com 

Nike under $40 is getting very interesting because expectations have fallen so low, often where the best risk/reward shows up. The stock closed at its lowest since 2014, about 78% below its all-time high. The turnaround is not finished: FY26 revenue was basically flat, Nike Direct is still shrinking and China remains a major problem. But wholesale revenue grew 6% for the year as Nike rebuilds retailer relationships. This is not a call on the bottom. x.com 

Nike looks undervalued, with turnaround potential at its highest just as fundamentals and sentiment are at their worst. The Cryptic Bottom Index is in a region that has historically aligned with some of Nike's biggest macro bottoms over the past 30+ years. Cutting prices and rebranding as a more affordable brand, along with replacing marketing leadership, would be the catalyst for a fundamental turnaround. Continued deterioration toward bankruptcy is possible but a low-probability outcome. x.com  … Show more

Nike's turnaround is going to take longer than expected, so its earnings no longer anchor the valuation. It may be time to value Nike as a sum of its brands rather than on EPS; at some point that collection will become underpriced, much as Tapestry did during Covid. x.com 

Nike's valuation premium has been squeezed out just as CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround shows traction. P/S near 1.3x is a decade low, P/E is about 20x, and a 3.8% yield gives downside protection; Morningstar rates it Wide Moat with fair value above $90. North American wholesale revenue rose 10%, and Foot Locker's first positive same-store sales in four years suggest the wholesale repair is working. Curbing AJ1 and Dunk supply rebuilds scarcity, and the fall Investor Day could flip expectations. … Show more

Nike's valuation pays investors to wait for a turnaround that will take longer than expected. It trades at just 16x earnings, near its lowest valuation ever, with a roughly 5% dividend yield, and would need a 127% rally to regain its 200-week moving average. Revenue is projected to fall another 4% in FY2027, but the business will grow again; the market prices it as if it were disappearing. Unlike Novo Nordisk, Nike faces no patent cliff. x.com  x.com 

Nike's downside is likely not over even at this price because the business is shrinking with no credible turnaround plan. Brands owned by influencers and celebrities are taking share, white-label manufacturing adds pressure while Nike lacks innovation, and its digital strategy has been a disaster. A turnaround needs a radical shift in strategy and operations, not the incremental changes now being promised. x.com 

Nike is the best stock to buy when others are fearful. x.com