mon
Independent Analyst, High-Risk Small-Cap & Growth Investing
Nike's dividend yield, now high versus its ten-year history, is the new question for investors and makes the stock very interesting at these levels. The numbers have not bottomed, guidance was atrocious and parts of the business are getting worse, offset somewhat by better US wholesale. The guidance implies Nike will use some cash to fund the dividend, but it has plenty. The stock remains too expensive on earnings and too cheap on dividend yield. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nike's valuation pays investors to wait for a turnaround that will take longer than expected. It trades at just 16x earnings, near its lowest valuation ever, with a roughly 5% dividend yield, and would need a 127% rally to regain its 200-week moving average. Revenue is projected to fall another 4% in FY2027, but the business will grow again; the market prices it as if it were disappearing. Unlike Novo Nordisk, Nike faces no patent cliff. x.com x.comÂ
Nike's 29x P/E even after a steep share-price decline leaves it expensive enough to short. x.comÂ
Nike could re-rate aggressively if it finds a way to re-accelerate growth, which makes it start to look attractive here. China is still a problem, and the dividend yield is now 4.3%. x.comÂ
Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com x.comÂ
Nike has become more expensive even as its stock collapsed. Shares are down 64% from five years ago, yet its P/E is higher than it was then. x.comÂ
Nike's push to reposition as a premium sports brand looks like the right route to recovery, including in Greater China. New CFO Dave Denton was clearer, and Alex Arnault's board seat, Jordan's return to scarcity, elite athlete deals and less discounting support it. EPS was fairly strong and margins are improving; guidance looks set deliberately low to beat, since management says the decline largely stems from its own choices. The dividend is safe; a full turnaround may take 3-5 years. x.com … Show more
Nike's stock price and sales have both likely bottomed, with its monthly RSI lower than ever before. A further collapse remains a risk. x.com x.comÂ
Nike's dividend will have to be cut unless earnings double in a quick turnaround, because earnings now run below the payout. As @valuemaverick1 notes, Nike has the cash to sustain the dividend, but it does not earn it, so it should not be hiking it; that shows the Dividend Aristocrat label is worthless and the dividend a manipulated signal. Long extremely mispriced, the stock is still adjusting to new realities. The only reason to own Nike would be improving free cash flow and earnings. x.com … Show more
Nike could bottom here and rise 50%, since removal from the S&P 100 is a better signal than most people realize. The stock looks to be in the depression phase of its cycle. x.comÂ