Nike just can't compete the way it used to: it no longer captures the market it once did, and that clearly isn't changing any time soon. The post-earnings reaction went as expected, with the stock already at its lowest since 2014 going in. x.com  x.com 

Nike is a stagnant company losing pricing power, pointing to more tough years for shareholders. Revenue fell 4% last quarter, the only line still shrinking while gross margin expanded, inventory fell 3% and North America grew 2%, per the quoted post. x.com 

Nike's dividend yield, now high versus its ten-year history, is the new question for investors and makes the stock very interesting at these levels. The numbers have not bottomed, guidance was atrocious and parts of the business are getting worse, offset somewhat by better US wholesale. The guidance implies Nike will use some cash to fund the dividend, but it has plenty. The stock remains too expensive on earnings and too cheap on dividend yield. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike might not bottom until it cuts or eliminates its dividend, since net income is down 75% over five years and it cannot afford the payout. This could be one of the hardest turnarounds ever: it is getting clobbered on all fronts, China won't be coming back soon, products need a serious makeover and it overpays too many pro athletes. It needs to preserve cash, bring in new people and ideas, and find a way to bring excitement back to the brand. x.com  x.com 

Nike keeps getting its lunch eaten by competitors, with no clear way to turn the ship around. It now expects fiscal 2027 revenue to decline by high single digits, per @negligible_cap. Caitlin Clark isn't the savior, and the stock isn't worth touching. x.com  x.com 

Nike is the best stock to buy when others are fearful. x.com 

Nike may turn, but On and Hoka appear to be widening their moats, and cleaner economics with more durable advantages are preferable. Nike's FAST Graphs chart is one of the ugliest in a while, raising the question of how much of its moat remains. Possible catalysts are product innovation, a wholesale recovery, China stabilization and cost savings. On is taking market share, and street observation in New York showed On and Hoka standing out on people's feet. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike is a damaged business, not just a damaged stock, so buying the dip is a mistake; a falling price only works when the business is still growing. Sportswear, just under half of revenue, is down low double digits, China is losing ground to local brands, and guided earnings don't cover the dividend this year. Insider buying hasn't helped: Tim Cook and directors bought around $59 in December 2025, Cook and the CEO near $42 in April, and shares now sit near $32. x.com  x.com 

Nike could re-rate aggressively if it finds a way to re-accelerate growth, which makes it start to look attractive here. China is still a problem, and the dividend yield is now 4.3%. x.com 

Nike combines more than 10 years of flat or declining share price with declining fundamentals, which rules it out as a long-term winner in a temporary slump. Microsoft's long sideways stretch was different because its fundamentals kept working. Nike could still become a major winner, but it suits concentrated investors willing to watch every development and exit quickly. Its upcoming dividend aristocrat status shouldn't be banked on; VF Corp cut just shy of 50 years of increases. x.com