SwingTrader
Stock & Bond Market Commentary
Nike is the best stock to buy when others are fearful. x.comÂ
Nike's dividend yield, now high versus its ten-year history, is the new question for investors and makes the stock very interesting at these levels. The numbers have not bottomed, guidance was atrocious and parts of the business are getting worse, offset somewhat by better US wholesale. The guidance implies Nike will use some cash to fund the dividend, but it has plenty. The stock remains too expensive on earnings and too cheap on dividend yield. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nike keeps getting its lunch eaten by competitors, with no clear way to turn the ship around. It now expects fiscal 2027 revenue to decline by high single digits, per @negligible_cap. Caitlin Clark isn't the savior, and the stock isn't worth touching. x.com x.comÂ
Nike could bottom here and rise 50%, since removal from the S&P 100 is a better signal than most people realize. The stock looks to be in the depression phase of its cycle. x.comÂ
Nike looks undervalued, with turnaround potential at its highest just as fundamentals and sentiment are at their worst. The Cryptic Bottom Index is in a region that has historically aligned with some of Nike's biggest macro bottoms over the past 30+ years. Cutting prices and rebranding as a more affordable brand, along with replacing marketing leadership, would be the catalyst for a fundamental turnaround. Continued deterioration toward bankruptcy is possible but a low-probability outcome. x.com … Show more
Nike combines more than 10 years of flat or declining share price with declining fundamentals, which rules it out as a long-term winner in a temporary slump. Microsoft's long sideways stretch was different because its fundamentals kept working. Nike could still become a major winner, but it suits concentrated investors willing to watch every development and exit quickly. Its upcoming dividend aristocrat status shouldn't be banked on; VF Corp cut just shy of 50 years of increases. x.comÂ
Nike under $40 is getting very interesting because expectations have fallen so low, often where the best risk/reward shows up. The stock closed at its lowest since 2014, about 78% below its all-time high. The turnaround is not finished: FY26 revenue was basically flat, Nike Direct is still shrinking and China remains a major problem. But wholesale revenue grew 6% for the year as Nike rebuilds retailer relationships. This is not a call on the bottom. x.comÂ
Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com x.comÂ
Nike's 29x P/E even after a steep share-price decline leaves it expensive enough to short. x.comÂ
Nike is setting up for a reversal as sentiment hits an extreme. It has been a long time since so many people dunked on a stock whose apparel is used so widely every day around the world, even as Nike is the only Dow stock down over the past decade, by 32.5%. x.comÂ