Nike looks undervalued, with turnaround potential at its highest just as fundamentals and sentiment are at their worst. The Cryptic Bottom Index is in a region that has historically aligned with some of Nike's biggest macro bottoms over the past 30+ years. Cutting prices and rebranding as a more affordable brand, along with replacing marketing leadership, would be the catalyst for a fundamental turnaround. Continued deterioration toward bankruptcy is possible but a low-probability outcome. x.com  … Show more

Nike is the best stock to buy when others are fearful. x.com 

Nike keeps getting its lunch eaten by competitors, with no clear way to turn the ship around. It now expects fiscal 2027 revenue to decline by high single digits, per @negligible_cap. Caitlin Clark isn't the savior, and the stock isn't worth touching. x.com  x.com 

Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Nike's stock price and sales have both likely bottomed, with its monthly RSI lower than ever before. A further collapse remains a risk. x.com  x.com 

Nike needs the bottom 90% of society to return, or it faces deflation, which for Nike means depression. Inflationary spikes are eliminating demand for goods people don't need or can't afford, crashing their prices and raising inequality. Nike is down 80% from its peak and has broken its long-term 200-period moving average, a line reserved for depressions. It can bounce, but probably never regains its 2021 peak, since rebuilding the middle class will take decades. x.com 

Nike under $40 is getting very interesting because expectations have fallen so low, often where the best risk/reward shows up. The stock closed at its lowest since 2014, about 78% below its all-time high. The turnaround is not finished: FY26 revenue was basically flat, Nike Direct is still shrinking and China remains a major problem. But wholesale revenue grew 6% for the year as Nike rebuilds retailer relationships. This is not a call on the bottom. x.com 

Nike's dividend yield, now high versus its ten-year history, is the new question for investors and makes the stock very interesting at these levels. The numbers have not bottomed, guidance was atrocious and parts of the business are getting worse, offset somewhat by better US wholesale. The guidance implies Nike will use some cash to fund the dividend, but it has plenty. The stock remains too expensive on earnings and too cheap on dividend yield. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike might not bottom until it cuts or eliminates its dividend, since net income is down 75% over five years and it cannot afford the payout. This could be one of the hardest turnarounds ever: it is getting clobbered on all fronts, China won't be coming back soon, products need a serious makeover and it overpays too many pro athletes. It needs to preserve cash, bring in new people and ideas, and find a way to bring excitement back to the brand. x.com  x.com 

Nike's push to reposition as a premium sports brand looks like the right route to recovery, including in Greater China. New CFO Dave Denton was clearer, and Alex Arnault's board seat, Jordan's return to scarcity, elite athlete deals and less discounting support it. EPS was fairly strong and margins are improving; guidance looks set deliberately low to beat, since management says the decline largely stems from its own choices. The dividend is safe; a full turnaround may take 3-5 years. x.com  … Show more