Waterworld Capital
Public Markets Commentary
Nike has become more expensive even as its stock collapsed. Shares are down 64% from five years ago, yet its P/E is higher than it was then. x.comÂ
Nike looks overvalued at about 25.6x forward earnings for a business guiding to high-single-digit revenue declines. At $32 on $1.25 of EPS, per the lowered guidance @TrendSpider reports, plus a 5% dividend, tobacco stocks like Altria should triple if that is the going rate for shrinking sales. Nike does not merit a tobacco multiple: it angered its distributors, faces more premium rivals and new entrants, has less loyal customers, is no government-mandated duopoly and pays for costly marketing. … Show more
Nike is the best stock to buy when others are fearful. x.comÂ
Nike is not cheap: it still trades at 21 times earnings despite declining revenue. x.comÂ
Nike shares are still not cheap, even after falling nearly 80% over five years. The roughly 19x P/E a reply cites includes a one-time tariff refund gain. x.com x.comÂ
Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com x.comÂ
Nike, an apparel company with shrinking sales, trades at a premium to the companies selling the most important products on earth. Per @LeifInvests, Nike's forward P/E of 22.6x is higher than Broadcom's ~20.5x, NVIDIA's ~19x and Oracle's ~17x. x.comÂ
Nike deserves a lower valuation than even 14x earnings, which is generous for a shoe company with shrinking revenue. It still trades above 20x earnings, while the S&P 500 trades at 19x with huge growth. x.comÂ
Nike's dividend yield, now high versus its ten-year history, is the new question for investors and makes the stock very interesting at these levels. The numbers have not bottomed, guidance was atrocious and parts of the business are getting worse, offset somewhat by better US wholesale. The guidance implies Nike will use some cash to fund the dividend, but it has plenty. The stock remains too expensive on earnings and too cheap on dividend yield. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nike is more expensive than Nvidia while guiding sales down. Nike guided FY27 EPS to $1.15-$1.35 against about $1.67 expected by the Street, putting it at 28x earnings versus Nvidia at 25x. Over five years Nvidia is up 1,013% and Nike down 76%. x.comÂ