Nike deserves a lower valuation than even 14x earnings, which is generous for a shoe company with shrinking revenue. It still trades above 20x earnings, while the S&P 500 trades at 19x with huge growth. x.comÂ
Joe
Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points
Nike, an apparel company with shrinking sales, trades at a premium to the companies selling the most important products on earth. Per @LeifInvests, Nike's forward P/E of 22.6x is higher than Broadcom's ~20.5x, NVIDIA's ~19x and Oracle's ~17x. x.comÂ
Nike's 29x P/E even after a steep share-price decline leaves it expensive enough to short. x.comÂ
Nike's valuation pays investors to wait for a turnaround that will take longer than expected. It trades at just 16x earnings, near its lowest valuation ever, with a roughly 5% dividend yield, and would need a 127% rally to regain its 200-week moving average. Revenue is projected to fall another 4% in FY2027, but the business will grow again; the market prices it as if it were disappearing. Unlike Novo Nordisk, Nike faces no patent cliff. x.com x.comÂ
Nike looks overvalued at about 25.6x forward earnings for a business guiding to high-single-digit revenue declines. At $32 on $1.25 of EPS, per the lowered guidance @TrendSpider reports, plus a 5% dividend, tobacco stocks like Altria should triple if that is the going rate for shrinking sales. Nike does not merit a tobacco multiple: it angered its distributors, faces more premium rivals and new entrants, has less loyal customers, is no government-mandated duopoly and pays for costly marketing. … Show more
Nike is not cheap: it still trades at 21 times earnings despite declining revenue. x.comÂ
Nike is the best stock to buy when others are fearful. x.comÂ
Nike could be re-rated lower as an apparel company with falling revenue and EPS that is struggling to show CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround is taking root after two years. Q1 revenue missed at $11.21B, FY27 revenue is guided down by a high-single-digit percentage versus a 2% expected decline, and adjusted EPS guidance of $1.15-$1.35 sits well below the $1.65 consensus, with weakness in China, sportswear and Jordan. Its 26.4x 2027 P/E is low only versus its ~30x history. x.com x.comÂ
Nike is more expensive than Nvidia while guiding sales down. Nike guided FY27 EPS to $1.15-$1.35 against about $1.67 expected by the Street, putting it at 28x earnings versus Nvidia at 25x. Over five years Nvidia is up 1,013% and Nike down 76%. x.comÂ
Nike's dividend yield, now high versus its ten-year history, is the new question for investors and makes the stock very interesting at these levels. The numbers have not bottomed, guidance was atrocious and parts of the business are getting worse, offset somewhat by better US wholesale. The guidance implies Nike will use some cash to fund the dividend, but it has plenty. The stock remains too expensive on earnings and too cheap on dividend yield. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nike's business is just not getting better: its products are too pricey and revenue has been flat for five years. Quarterly revenue of $11.21 billion missed the $11.33 billion estimate, EPS slipped to $0.48 from $0.49 a year earlier, and the company lowered its outlook to single-digit growth in 2027. x.com x.com x.comÂ