Nike's turnaround is looking much longer than bulls expected, and about 17x forward earnings is not cheap for a business growing low single digits. China sales fell 26% FX-neutral while Adidas' Greater China sales grew 15%, pointing to a Nike problem, not a China problem. Sportswear fell low double digits with Dunk revenue down about 50%, Jordan fell mid-teens, and most PACE savings are expected only in FY29-30; Performance grew high single digits. The must-buy price is $25. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike looks overvalued at about 25.6x forward earnings for a business guiding to high-single-digit revenue declines. At $32 on $1.25 of EPS, per the lowered guidance @TrendSpider reports, plus a 5% dividend, tobacco stocks like Altria should triple if that is the going rate for shrinking sales. Nike does not merit a tobacco multiple: it angered its distributors, faces more premium rivals and new entrants, has less loyal customers, is no government-mandated duopoly and pays for costly marketing. … Show more

Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Nike's situation is worse than expected. x.com 

Nike beat the quarter but torched the year, a guidance reset rather than a miss. It sees fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $1.15-1.35, a $1.25 midpoint versus $1.69 expected, and revenue declining by a high-single-digit percentage. Inventories fell, but the guide is horrendous. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike's valuation pays investors to wait for a turnaround that will take longer than expected. It trades at just 16x earnings, near its lowest valuation ever, with a roughly 5% dividend yield, and would need a 127% rally to regain its 200-week moving average. Revenue is projected to fall another 4% in FY2027, but the business will grow again; the market prices it as if it were disappearing. Unlike Novo Nordisk, Nike faces no patent cliff. x.com  x.com 

Nike's business is just not getting better: its products are too pricey and revenue has been flat for five years. Quarterly revenue of $11.21 billion missed the $11.33 billion estimate, EPS slipped to $0.48 from $0.49 a year earlier, and the company lowered its outlook to single-digit growth in 2027. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike's fundamentals have not yet followed, and insider buying by CEO Elliott Hill and board member Tim Cook did not fix the business. Q1 revenue fell about 4% to $11.2B, with China down 26%, Nike Sportswear down low double digits and Jordan down mid-teens. Management warned China could get worse and some turnaround pain could extend into fiscal 2028. Performance grew high single digits, running double digits and North America returned to growth, so Nike is not being written off. x.com 

Nike's push to reposition as a premium sports brand looks like the right route to recovery, including in Greater China. New CFO Dave Denton was clearer, and Alex Arnault's board seat, Jordan's return to scarcity, elite athlete deals and less discounting support it. EPS was fairly strong and margins are improving; guidance looks set deliberately low to beat, since management says the decline largely stems from its own choices. The dividend is safe; a full turnaround may take 3-5 years. x.com  … Show more

Nike deserves a lower valuation than even 14x earnings, which is generous for a shoe company with shrinking revenue. It still trades above 20x earnings, while the S&P 500 trades at 19x with huge growth. x.com