GURGAVIN
Technology Investor, Event-Driven Trader
Nike's 29x P/E even after a steep share-price decline leaves it expensive enough to short. x.comÂ
Nike has become more expensive even as its stock collapsed. Shares are down 64% from five years ago, yet its P/E is higher than it was then. x.comÂ
Nike is the best stock to buy when others are fearful. x.comÂ
Nike is not cheap: it still trades at 21 times earnings despite declining revenue. x.comÂ
Nike deserves a lower valuation than even 14x earnings, which is generous for a shoe company with shrinking revenue. It still trades above 20x earnings, while the S&P 500 trades at 19x with huge growth. x.comÂ
Nike's valuation pays investors to wait for a turnaround that will take longer than expected. It trades at just 16x earnings, near its lowest valuation ever, with a roughly 5% dividend yield, and would need a 127% rally to regain its 200-week moving average. Revenue is projected to fall another 4% in FY2027, but the business will grow again; the market prices it as if it were disappearing. Unlike Novo Nordisk, Nike faces no patent cliff. x.com x.comÂ
Nike looks overvalued at about 25.6x forward earnings for a business guiding to high-single-digit revenue declines. At $32 on $1.25 of EPS, per the lowered guidance @TrendSpider reports, plus a 5% dividend, tobacco stocks like Altria should triple if that is the going rate for shrinking sales. Nike does not merit a tobacco multiple: it angered its distributors, faces more premium rivals and new entrants, has less loyal customers, is no government-mandated duopoly and pays for costly marketing. … Show more
Nike, an apparel company with shrinking sales, trades at a premium to the companies selling the most important products on earth. Per @LeifInvests, Nike's forward P/E of 22.6x is higher than Broadcom's ~20.5x, NVIDIA's ~19x and Oracle's ~17x. x.comÂ
Nike's dividend yield, now high versus its ten-year history, is the new question for investors and makes the stock very interesting at these levels. The numbers have not bottomed, guidance was atrocious and parts of the business are getting worse, offset somewhat by better US wholesale. The guidance implies Nike will use some cash to fund the dividend, but it has plenty. The stock remains too expensive on earnings and too cheap on dividend yield. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nike does not merit a high-teens earnings multiple. Wingstop, CRH and Boston Scientific are much better fallen names right now: after big de-ratings they still trade cheaper than Nike while offering real growth and less long-term risk. x.comÂ