Ouster is still good value, with a path to about $285M of EBITDA by 2030 from 40% annual growth and 30% EBITDA margins. At a 25x multiple, that implies an enterprise value of about $7.1B. x.com
Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Ouster is supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained, the better problem to have, as long as it stays on track for 100,000 units a year of capacity. Management commentary points to very high demand, and @CoffeeStocksGuy notes multiple million-dollar Rev8 orders from Caterpillar, an autonomous ag company and a top AV provider, Rev8 production volumes by late Q3 and lidar volumes up about 70%. More disclosure of Rev8 numbers would help. x.com x.com
Ouster is a long-term hold that should deliver nice gains a year from now, backed by a wave of new deals. They include a 10-year, 100,000-unit-per-year Rev8 lidar supply agreement with Benchmark Electronics, a multi-year autonomous heavy-equipment contract with AIM Intelligent Machines and a drone-platform partnership with Seneca announced Oct 2. Q2 revenue hit $55M, up 56%, on 17,000+ sensors. The weekly chart shows a bull flag retesting support after breaking out of a multi-month base. x.com … Show more
Ouster is showing operating leverage, with gross profit rising steadily while operating expenses stay flat. Even setting aside last quarter's revenue jump, which a reply called a one-time event, the trend still points toward operating leverage. x.com x.com x.com
Ouster is not a buy at its recent price, because even a great business can be a bad investment if you pay too much. The stock has fallen 20% since that call, and stocks often draw the most attention at the worst time to buy. Physical AI remains a very bullish theme, and adding becomes attractive if the price keeps dropping and risk/reward improves. x.com
The FCC's ban on Chinese advanced robotics could leave Ouster as the only major publicly traded player in its field. The ruling's biggest concern was intelligence gathered from sensors. The valuation isn't appealing, but if Ambarella's $100 price target is right, Ambarella trades near 10x revenue, making Ouster's roughly 12x with twice the growth look reasonable. x.com x.com
Ouster's Q2 showed solid execution and big margin expansion, but a flat Q3 guide leaves the short term mixed and the medium term still constructive. Revenue beat at $55M, up 56% year over year, on 17k sensors; GAAP gross margin rose 600 bps sequentially to 49%, adjusted EBITDA loss was only $4M and cash was $263M. Management called the Rev8 reaction "electric" and said customers are scaling physical-AI investments, but the $54.5-57.5M Q3 guide shows no acceleration. x.com
Ouster is one of the few US lidar companies with a real moat and pricing power, positioned for physical AI and robotics, which are going to be huge. Below $30 is a level to buy. x.com
Ouster is a bet on the robotics S-curve, backed by a balance sheet with no debt and about $220 million of cash. Customers include Komatsu, under a multimillion-dollar deal for lidar across autonomous mining, construction and forestry equipment, John Deere in heavy equipment automation, Motional in autonomous vehicles and Serve Robotics in delivery robots. Dilution is acceptable for a growth stock, though a reply notes 22% dilution against 32% ex-royalty revenue growth. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Ouster sits at the convergence of four themes: robotics, smart infrastructure, industrial automation and physical AI. Revenue is projected to grow from $19 million in 2020 to $220 million in 2026 and $540 million in 2029, a 45% compound rate. The stock is in a Stage 2 uptrend with strong accumulation. x.com
Ouster has become a foundational Physical AI player, and Q1 2026 shows unit economics that set it apart from other lidar makers. Non-GAAP gross margin was 46%, over 70% of revenue comes from industrial and smart infrastructure with short sales cycles, and Gemini software revenue grows double digits quarterly. Google, Volvo Autonomous Solutions and Liebherr committed to native-color REV8, and it is taking US share from Hesai. At about 2.2x sales, 2-3x looks possible in 1-2 years. x.com x.com … Show more
Ouster looks set for a multi-month bull run, and it remains very early. The monthly chart is putting in higher lows, it has broken out of a higher-timeframe downtrend, and the daily chart is forming a bullish megaphone. x.com