Matthew Sigel
Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, Portfolio Manager of NODE ETF
A TeraWulf director's latest open-market sale carries no signal on the stock. She sold exactly the stock grant that vested in June, as she did last year, keeping the same 153,218 core shares; she stays on the board through 2027 and has no background in data centers, bitcoin mining or power markets. Still, with the stock down 50% from its peak and signed leases making up most of its value at the current price, directors at a growth company should be letting their stakes grow. x.com x.comÂ
TeraWulf's lease rates are repricing higher as scarce powered shells grow more valuable. Lake Mariner's Fluidstack leases came in around $1.86M per MW-year and the Anthropic deal at roughly $2.37M, a 27% increase. Nvidia's 15%+ AI server price hike falls on tenants, not landlords, making speed to power more valuable. Its warrant charge hits when the stock rises, so headline EPS is an anti-signal. The key watch item is pricing on the $3.5B Kentucky loan this fall. x.comÂ
Cipher Mining's recent capital raise at these share prices weakens its appeal relative to TeraWulf. Both companies are doing things worth liking, but the disappointing raise tips the preference toward TeraWulf. x.comÂ
TeraWulf rushed to sell more shares right after breaking out above $20, despite a first-quarter miss. It is offering $800 million of common stock, plus up to $120 million more for underwriters, to help fund a data center in Hawesville, Kentucky. Preliminary Q1 revenue of $30-35 million fell short of the $39.17 million consensus, with adjusted EBITDA of just $0-3 million. x.comÂ
Wells Fargo's estimate for TeraWulf's pipeline sites looks light, and management can be trusted to convert them. Wells initiated at Overweight with a $30 target, about $15 a share from contracted leases and $15 from probability-weighted pipeline. It models ~$3.8B of 2030 run-rate NOI versus a ~$1.5B signed book from Anthropic, Fluidstack and Core42, with ~$2B across Muskie, Hawkeye and Morgantown. Per @PSInvestor, the target is 2x from here if pipeline converts; watch the first Muskie lease. … Show more
TeraWulf stands out among bitcoin miners pivoting to AI data centers because its massive 20-year Anthropic deal gives it real legitimacy, and some capacity is already energized, moving it beyond pure hype. Plenty of execution and buildout risk remains before that partnership produces, and the chart is losing its uptrend line, suggesting more short-term chop. Long term, it should do well if the buildout goes well and the AI revolution is real. x.comÂ
TeraWulf is a Ponzi designed to enrich its subsidiary and give billionaire friends and insiders exit liquidity. CEO Paul Prager should step down. x.comÂ
TeraWulf deserved to rise on its Anthropic deal, and Sharon AI on a possible deal using its existing Australian data center footprint, unlike IREN, whose move is pure speculation with no physical footprint in Australia. Holding through the market's short-term flushes is the hard part of owning them long term. x.comÂ
TeraWulf has two potential catalysts in the coming months. Anthropic's S-1 filing should reassure investors about TeraWulf's heavy customer concentration in Anthropic. A lease at Muskie, its other Kentucky site marketing 500MW of gross power for second-half 2028 delivery, would almost certainly diversify its customer base and add $600MM+ of contracted average annual NOI, over 50% growth on the existing $1.2B+. x.comÂ
CoreWeave, IREN, Nebius and TeraWulf will sell shares as fast as they can when their stocks get pumped back up, adding issuer supply to rebounds. x.comÂ
TeraWulf's pivot from bitcoin mining to AI compute is drawing financing and analyst support after a reported $19B AI data-center lease with Anthropic. Per Bloomberg, citing CFO Patrick Fleury, it plans about $3.5B of leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, run by Morgan Stanley, to build the Kentucky campus under a 20-year Anthropic lease. Rosenblatt and Bernstein raised targets, with Bernstein seeing up to 70% upside. It must hold above $24.50 to keep its reclaim alive. x.com x.comÂ