Gublo
Small/Mid-Cap Trader, Multibagger/Penny Stocks, Earnings Analysis & Signals
CoreWeave, IREN, Nebius and TeraWulf will sell shares as fast as they can when their stocks get pumped back up, adding issuer supply to rebounds. x.comÂ
TeraWulf rushed to sell more shares right after breaking out above $20, despite a first-quarter miss. It is offering $800 million of common stock, plus up to $120 million more for underwriters, to help fund a data center in Hawesville, Kentucky. Preliminary Q1 revenue of $30-35 million fell short of the $39.17 million consensus, with adjusted EBITDA of just $0-3 million. x.comÂ
Cipher Mining's recent capital raise at these share prices weakens its appeal relative to TeraWulf. Both companies are doing things worth liking, but the disappointing raise tips the preference toward TeraWulf. x.comÂ
TeraWulf's reported $20 billion lease with Anthropic and roughly 3 gigawatts of compute capacity look like barely hidden fraud for a formerly bankrupt company now competing with Meta on capacity. x.com x.comÂ
Heavily indebted data-center and compute names, including CoreWeave, IREN, Cipher, TeraWulf, Core Scientific, Riot, MARA, Hut 8, Bitdeer and Bit Digital, are vulnerable if credit tightens next year. High-debt firms get punished in tightening, especially if a credit freeze stalls projects, and panicked markets sell everything. TeraWulf shows the risk, with a $427.6 million Q1 net loss, $713 million of quarterly cash burn and $7.09 billion of liabilities. This is a macro basket trade. x.com x.com … Show more
TeraWulf trades below the value of its signed leases, and an insider is buying on that view. Board member and VC partner Mike Bucella bought another 6,100 shares in the open market at $14.79. x.comÂ
IREN's governance is a red flag: it put a FinX influencer, Mike Alfred, on its board to shill the stock while continuously diluting shareholders through ATM offerings. It also acquired a PR company. Per @aleabitoreddit, IREN faces endless dilution like BKKT, ASST and SLNH, and Alfred has promoted every one of them. There is never a good reason to put an influencer on a board other than to have the stock promoted. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Contracts, operating rental revenue and access to capital should let five neoclouds survive consolidation as debt tightens. IREN combines customer contracts with $14B of cash, committed GPU financing and prepayments; Nebius has over $40B of commitments and a new $3.5B Citi facility. Cipher has begun HPC rent and funded Stingray; TeraWulf has a long Anthropic lease and cash; Applied Digital has $36B of contracted base-term leases and 250MW operational. Musk warns many other neoclouds may fail. … Show more
TeraWulf's lease rates are repricing higher as scarce powered shells grow more valuable. Lake Mariner's Fluidstack leases came in around $1.86M per MW-year and the Anthropic deal at roughly $2.37M, a 27% increase. Nvidia's 15%+ AI server price hike falls on tenants, not landlords, making speed to power more valuable. Its warrant charge hits when the stock rises, so headline EPS is an anti-signal. The key watch item is pricing on the $3.5B Kentucky loan this fall. x.comÂ
TeraWulf can keep collecting rent if Fluidstack is acquired because its Lake Mariner leases would transfer with the tenant. Google backstops Fluidstack's obligations, and TeraWulf also signed Anthropic directly in Kentucky. Gartner's forecast that over 80% of neoclouds cease independent operations by 2030 includes acquisitions, not just failures, so it need not mean lost rent for TeraWulf. x.comÂ