Pepe Invests
Retail Investor, Stocks, Real Estate, AI & Bitcoin
IREN's governance is a red flag: it put a FinX influencer, Mike Alfred, on its board to shill the stock while continuously diluting shareholders through ATM offerings. It also acquired a PR company. Per @aleabitoreddit, IREN faces endless dilution like BKKT, ASST and SLNH, and Alfred has promoted every one of them. There is never a good reason to put an influencer on a board other than to have the stock promoted. x.com x.com x.com x.com
IREN's predatory management and markedly weaker execution than Nebius make it hard to take seriously while Mike Alfred remains on its board. Barring an oversold bounce, IREN looks cooked big time with more time. x.com x.com
IREN looks like an absurd management money grab, with compensation that carries zero performance hurdles. x.com
Open-source models likely wrecked the heavy-capex thesis behind IREN. Debt CDS and falling token prices make the still-bullish view definitely less so. Unlike Roku, a previous long-term hold with a unique, massive user base, low capex and positive free cash flow, IREN lacks a clear path forward; without one, it is better not to hold it. If Warsh remains hawkish, a full exit from IREN is very likely. x.com x.com
IREN looks like a joke company for spending on sponsorships and giving away executive shares without announcing deals. It sponsors sports teams and the All-In podcast while giving its CEO and brother tens of millions of free shares tied to no performance metrics. x.com
IREN is one to avoid, as lack of transparency and poor overall management add to its valuation, dilution, capital, execution and customer-concentration risks. Secondhand accounts suggest the earnings call was far from reassuring and left more questions than answers. x.com
IREN's long-term appeal rests on its standing as one of the best vertically integrated AI neoclouds. In the short term, the stock has not been this oversold since 2022. x.com
IREN will dilute shareholders more than any other listed company of its size, using the AI cycle to issue billions in stock. That keeps its price depressed even in a bull market, and in a correction or bear market it would be among the first to fall; those who bought at the top will not recover anytime soon. x.com
IREN's worsening fundamentals warrant patience despite its potential. Trailing free cash flow is -$2.45 billion, net income -$703 million and EPS -$1.64 even as revenue has grown; it needs a catalyst change and a positive trend in fundamentals. x.com
IREN's $8 billion in cash against a valuation of just $10 billion points to unfathomable upside potential. Its shares are back below their $28 IPO price. x.com
IREN's problem is not valuation but an overhang from its management team. None of its managers has a history in the sector, and the CEO having to tweet after the earnings call to explain what he said is a turn-off for investors. x.com
