IREN's predatory management and markedly weaker execution than Nebius make it hard to take seriously while Mike Alfred remains on its board. Barring an oversold bounce, IREN looks cooked big time with more time. x.com  x.com 

IREN is one to avoid, as lack of transparency and poor overall management add to its valuation, dilution, capital, execution and customer-concentration risks. Secondhand accounts suggest the earnings call was far from reassuring and left more questions than answers. x.com 

IREN's $8 billion in cash against a valuation of just $10 billion points to unfathomable upside potential. Its shares are back below their $28 IPO price. x.com 

IREN's worsening fundamentals warrant patience despite its potential. Trailing free cash flow is -$2.45 billion, net income -$703 million and EPS -$1.64 even as revenue has grown; it needs a catalyst change and a positive trend in fundamentals. x.com 

IREN looks like an absurd management money grab, with compensation that carries zero performance hurdles. x.com 

Open-source models likely wrecked the heavy-capex thesis behind IREN. Debt CDS and falling token prices make the still-bullish view definitely less so. Unlike Roku, a previous long-term hold with a unique, massive user base, low capex and positive free cash flow, IREN lacks a clear path forward; without one, it is better not to hold it. If Warsh remains hawkish, a full exit from IREN is very likely. x.com  x.com 

IREN keeps falling behind Nebius: it misses estimates, its story keeps getting pushed back, and despite its capacity it fails to sign contracts or bring in meaningful revenue. Its management, software and engineering are all weaker, and it has not beaten Nebius on any front in recent years. @SpoonKidnapper counters that IREN is still converting its Canadian sites from bitcoin mining to AI, so ARR doesn't yet reflect where it will be in a quarter or two. x.com 

IREN looks like a joke company for spending on sponsorships and giving away executive shares without announcing deals. It sponsors sports teams and the All-In podcast while giving its CEO and brother tens of millions of free shares tied to no performance metrics. x.com 

IREN's long-term appeal rests on its standing as one of the best vertically integrated AI neoclouds. In the short term, the stock has not been this oversold since 2022. x.com 

IREN's lack of transparency on its biggest contract makes it hard to underwrite. It signed a multi-year deal with a leading frontier AI lab without naming the lab or the value, so the credit risk could be OpenAI's or a far weaker lab's. Nebius names and sizes its deals with Microsoft, Meta and Reflection. NDAs are usually the customer's demand, but the thesis rests on contracted revenue converting while IREN lost $684 million last quarter and funds its buildout partly through a $6 billion ATM. … Show more