Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
IREN could fall to the low $30s after SemiAnalysis reported that neocloud customers rate its Northern British Columbia sites the worst in the industry. Per @SemiAnalysis_, users at Prince George and Mackenzie describe multi-day power outages, storage failures and network link flaps, including customers renting directly from IREN. The stock would become a buy around $35, and again at $30. x.com
IREN keeps diluting shareholders heavily while spending money on sponsoring the Golden State Warriors' jerseys and the All In podcast, raising questions about how the rest of its money is spent. x.com
IREN's commercial momentum looks weak because it has more sponsorships than signed deals, suggesting promotional partnerships are outpacing customer commitments. x.com
IREN's $8 billion in cash against a valuation of just $10 billion points to unfathomable upside potential. Its shares are back below their $28 IPO price. x.com
IREN's predatory management and markedly weaker execution than Nebius make it hard to take seriously while Mike Alfred remains on its board. Barring an oversold bounce, IREN looks cooked big time with more time. x.com x.com
IREN's Real Madrid sponsorship is a waste of capital. Spending on promotion after buying a marketing company shows the same poor capital-allocation judgment again. x.com
Open-source models likely wrecked the heavy-capex thesis behind IREN. Debt CDS and falling token prices make the still-bullish view definitely less so. Unlike Roku, a previous long-term hold with a unique, massive user base, low capex and positive free cash flow, IREN lacks a clear path forward; without one, it is better not to hold it. If Warsh remains hawkish, a full exit from IREN is very likely. x.com x.com
IREN looks like an absurd management money grab, with compensation that carries zero performance hurdles. x.com
IREN's worsening fundamentals warrant patience despite its potential. Trailing free cash flow is -$2.45 billion, net income -$703 million and EPS -$1.64 even as revenue has grown; it needs a catalyst change and a positive trend in fundamentals. x.com
IREN's forecast revenue ramp underpins the $100-plus share-price view. It will do $4 billion in ARR by Q1 and $13 billion by the end of next year; comparing today's share price and shares outstanding with its IPO overlooks that expected growth. x.com x.com
IREN is not worth owning because management cannot be trusted, whatever its appeal or the Anthropic rumors. The last straw is a roughly $800M stock grant to co-CEOs Dan and Will Roberts with no performance metrics, after the Awaken acquisition and $50M a year for a Golden State Warriors deal. @StockzOnTap cites a six-year lock-up and no new grants until 2031, but founders should not need such pay; IREN's edge was power secured earlier. @dsabs11 adds it has not delivered its first big contract. … Show more