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Crypto Entrepreneur, Founder of Cambrian Labs
Bittensor's TAO does not need its subnets to beat frontier AI labs; it only has to show some evidence that it is viable AI infrastructure to reach a $500B market cap. Ethereum hit $500B for showing some evidence it could take on traditional finance. Templar was that inflection point for TAO. x.comÂ
Bittensor's TAO is cheap at a $2.9 billion valuation because decentralized AI will be at the forefront while many AI stocks trade at crazy valuations. Per Polymarket, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella warns that an AI future dominated by a few models is "not stable." x.comÂ
Bittensor's TAO is the Bitcoin of AI, a decentralized AI marketplace with a 21 million maximum supply. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. x.comÂ
TAO could surprise to the upside in the short term on the strong AI narrative, but there is no reason to believe in it long term. x.comÂ
Bittensor's subnet economy could lift TAO via Alpha-token demand, but a major rally needs paying AI customers, not emission farming. About 64.2% of circulating TAO was staked as of Oct 7. At ~$3.24B, TAO is no cheap microcap. Still constructive long term, but stronger conviction needs verifiable revenue, demand above issuance, competitive AI products and institutional access. AI sentiment and crypto liquidity must also recover; Grayscale trust filings alone do not guarantee inflows. x.comÂ
TAO looks undervalued at about $3B while frontier AI labs are worth a trillion, because Bittensor subnets can already give AI power users frontier-like quality at lower prices. Subnets cover models (engy, Chutes, saygm), storage and databases (Hippius), GPUs (Targon, Lium) and search (Desearch). x.comÂ
Bittensor's arbitrary reward functions make its design far more complex than Pearl's MatMul focus, and that complexity works against TAO. Bittensor might still work if it got the design right; if not, repeated revisions may never reach a working end state. Pearl could get there faster and, if correct, get much bigger, though it too may fail. If, as Sebtensor says, TAO is an AI economy rather than AI money, Ethereum's struggle to accrue value to ETH is a further bearish warning. x.com x.com x.comÂ
TAO is benefiting as investors move into decentralized AI after reports that Anthropic's most powerful AI models face new US export restrictions. After a 26% rally it is testing a big resistance level, and a break above that holds could open a move toward $300+. x.comÂ
Bittensor has a very unique opportunity for a crypto breakout, combining one of the most cult-like communities since Ripple, Chainlink and early Ethereum with subnet adoption and massive global investment in AI. x.comÂ
TAO's narrative took a big hit after Covenant appeared to completely rug existing holders of its subnet tokens Templar, Grail and Basilica, prompting an exit from both the subnets and TAO. It is like the largest app on a layer-1 rage-quitting the chain and taking all value from its own token. Coming back depends on seeing network-level updates that prevent a repeat, which are in the works. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bittensor is the leading AI crypto project, so TAO should run once the FUD clears; it is one to buy and hold. x.comÂ
