Andy
Co-Founder of The Rollup & The Rollup Ventures
Bittensor's subnets are in a bull mania few are watching, the AI-crypto trade the market has waited for. Chamath, Jason Calacanis and Jensen Huang are talking bullishly, and the subnets are hard to reach onchain, needing a new wallet and setup, much like DeFi Summer. TAO and Hyperliquid are likely to make major run-ups versus other top 10-25 assets, since revenue-generating tokens will hold up better as institutions ask where the yield comes from and hype trends to zero. Highly speculative. x.com x.comÂ
Bittensor's TAO is the Bitcoin of AI, a decentralized AI marketplace with a 21 million maximum supply. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. x.comÂ
Bittensor shows clear relative strength as one of the two best cryptos trading above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, alongside Hyperliquid, when few cryptos are in uptrends. Its decentralized compute network also drew Jensen Huang's remark that it achieved big technical breakthroughs helping train some Llama models. x.comÂ
TAO could surprise to the upside in the short term on the strong AI narrative, but there is no reason to believe in it long term. x.comÂ
TAO is benefiting as investors move into decentralized AI after reports that Anthropic's most powerful AI models face new US export restrictions. After a 26% rally it is testing a big resistance level, and a break above that holds could open a move toward $300+. x.comÂ
Bittensor's subnet economy could lift TAO via Alpha-token demand, but a major rally needs paying AI customers, not emission farming. About 64.2% of circulating TAO was staked as of Oct 7. At ~$3.24B, TAO is no cheap microcap. Still constructive long term, but stronger conviction needs verifiable revenue, demand above issuance, competitive AI products and institutional access. AI sentiment and crypto liquidity must also recover; Grayscale trust filings alone do not guarantee inflows. x.comÂ
Bittensor's TAO suffers because the network lets subnets like SN95 extract millions in emissions without delivering. SN95 has made promises for over a year, shown no functional product or code, keeps pushing deadlines, barely communicates and raised money on the side. Its owner not selling, as @0xSunRun notes, doesn't change that: emission-inflated prices let others sell into the pool, and if the subnet is deregistered, the TAO is paid out and leaves the chain. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Bittensor is the leading AI crypto project, so TAO should run once the FUD clears; it is one to buy and hold. x.comÂ
Bittensor's nearly two-and-a-half-year downtrend is very close to ending, needing a weekly close above 320 to confirm a higher high, after which 500 looks easy. Businesses owning subnets now do $25-30m in annualized revenue, estimated at about $100m by year-end, from real paying customers. TAO pumping last has not been a great signal before, but Bitcoin's higher high and clear bullish structure change likely make this time different. x.com x.comÂ
Bittensor's TAO has much more downside to come. The trade was extremely crowded, with everyone talking about it but no one able to articulate a strong bull case, and the timeline is now full of angst, fighting and cope from bagholders. Anyone looking to allocate should be very patient. x.com x.comÂ
Bittensor's TAO is cheap at a $2.9 billion valuation because decentralized AI will be at the forefront while many AI stocks trade at crazy valuations. Per Polymarket, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella warns that an AI future dominated by a few models is "not stable." x.comÂ