Aylo
Crypto Researcher, Founder of Alpha Please
Bittensor's nearly two-and-a-half-year downtrend is very close to ending, needing a weekly close above 320 to confirm a higher high, after which 500 looks easy. Businesses owning subnets now do $25-30m in annualized revenue, estimated at about $100m by year-end, from real paying customers. TAO pumping last has not been a great signal before, but Bitcoin's higher high and clear bullish structure change likely make this time different. x.com x.comÂ
Bittensor's narrative will likely get ahead of its fundamentals, giving TAO a good run this bull market. After not working at all a few years ago, its very centralized approach has made real progress. Subnets now generate about $30-35M in annualized revenue, projected to reach $100M by year-end, quite impressive, and emissions grifting has been somewhat curbed. The mechanics are still imperfect for growing startups, such as penalizing pre-revenue subnets, and the task is very difficult. x.comÂ
Bittensor's subnet economy could lift TAO via Alpha-token demand, but a major rally needs paying AI customers, not emission farming. About 64.2% of circulating TAO was staked as of Oct 7. At ~$3.24B, TAO is no cheap microcap. Still constructive long term, but stronger conviction needs verifiable revenue, demand above issuance, competitive AI products and institutional access. AI sentiment and crypto liquidity must also recover; Grayscale trust filings alone do not guarantee inflows. x.comÂ
Revenue-funded subnet burns could strengthen the case for Bittensor's TAO if more subnets follow Targon. Targon reports burning SN4 alpha worth 1,772 TAO (about $445,000) using organic revenue, plus another $1.7 million worth of SN4 alpha. Similar burns across all 128 subnets remain hypothetical. x.comÂ
Bittensor's TAO suffers because the network lets subnets like SN95 extract millions in emissions without delivering. SN95 has made promises for over a year, shown no functional product or code, keeps pushing deadlines, barely communicates and raised money on the side. Its owner not selling, as @0xSunRun notes, doesn't change that: emission-inflated prices let others sell into the pool, and if the subnet is deregistered, the TAO is paid out and leaves the chain. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Targon's revenue-backed subnet-alpha repurchase gives Bittensor's flywheel a concrete example. Targon says it repurchased and burned 1,772 TAO worth of SN4 alpha using organic revenue, and burned another 6,678 TAO worth of alpha representing revenue generated via Targon. x.com x.comÂ
Bittensor's TAO is the Bitcoin of AI, a decentralized AI marketplace with a 21 million maximum supply. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. x.comÂ
TAO could surprise to the upside in the short term on the strong AI narrative, but there is no reason to believe in it long term. x.comÂ
Bittensor's long-term bid strengthens as top subnets turn real customer revenue into alpha buybacks and burns. SubConnect's first revenue index put 24 subnets at about $28-35M of annual recurring revenue from outside customers, 78-82% from compute and infrastructure. GPU marketplace Lium billed $1.3M last month, 2.96x a year earlier, with 1,310 of 1,602 GPUs rented, though emissions still run 2.1x billing; Targon and Chutes also fund buybacks from revenue. Subnet growth starts the bull run. … Show more
Bittensor has a very unique opportunity for a crypto breakout, combining one of the most cult-like communities since Ripple, Chainlink and early Ethereum with subnet adoption and massive global investment in AI. x.comÂ
Bittensor's TAO has much more downside to come. The trade was extremely crowded, with everyone talking about it but no one able to articulate a strong bull case, and the timeline is now full of angst, fighting and cope from bagholders. Anyone looking to allocate should be very patient. x.com x.comÂ
TAO is benefiting as investors move into decentralized AI after reports that Anthropic's most powerful AI models face new US export restrictions. After a 26% rally it is testing a big resistance level, and a break above that holds could open a move toward $300+. x.comÂ
