Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Itron is a grid modernization play priced like a hardware company even though its ARR is growing 20% a year and software and analytics rose 22%, so it should not be valued as hardware for long. It becomes a huge opportunity if SPY drops back to about $662, as buying while everything rallies is unappealing. x.comÂ
Itron is priced like a cyclical hardware vendor while becoming a software platform, a gap that closes once the market values its Grid Edge Intelligence as software infrastructure. Its network spans 100 million endpoints, and replacing it is a multi-year project for a utility. Recurring revenue is $368M, up 20%, and Q1 gross margin rose from 35.8% to 40.7% as legacy contracts rolled off. At 13x earnings the issue is catalysts, not price; lumpy orders and weak Q2 guidance may delay a rerating. … Show more
The grid's communication and edge-intelligence layers hold value the market has not priced as utilities rebuild for AI data centers, EVs and two-way solar flows. Grid investment is forecast at $5.8 trillion over 2026-2035; transmission is already priced, as GE Vernova's 4.5x rise shows. Smart-meter networks from Itron and Landis+Gyr take years to replace, and edge AI, led by GE Vernova, Schneider Electric and Itron, is projected to grow from $15.5 billion in 2025 to $48.9 billion by 2030. x.comÂ
Togami Electric is significantly undervalued and could double in the next 24 months as Japan's grid upgrade lifts demand and prices for its electrical distribution equipment. Q1 sales rose 12% and operating profit 40%. The revised guidance looks conservative, with operating income likely 15-20% higher. Cash keeps piling up, now about 28% of market cap, so management should raise its sub-30% dividend payout and accelerate buybacks. x.comÂ
Tecogen's chillers attack AI data centers' binding constraint, grid power, by shifting cooling to natural gas and freeing up to 30% of utility power for servers. Vertiv, gatekeeper to hyperscalers with a backlog above $15B, ordered a 1 MW chiller to demonstrate at its facility, a key validation; even a sliver of attach to Vertiv builds would be transformational against Tecogen's $6.3M quarterly revenue. After a 200%+ rise in under two months, a pullback is expected. x.comÂ
Entergy is becoming an infrastructure co-investor in hyperscaler expansion rather than a regulated commodity supplier, a shift the market hasn't fully priced. Meta underwriting seven natural gas plants, 5.2 GW, for a single AI campus gives Entergy long-duration demand with multi-decade visibility. Utilities landing such deals gain demand certainty few industries can offer. If one campus needs 5 GW, AI scaling is an energy deployment problem that happens to produce compute. x.comÂ
