mon
Independent Analyst, High-Risk Small-Cap & Growth Investing
Tecogen's chillers attack AI data centers' binding constraint, grid power, by shifting cooling to natural gas and freeing up to 30% of utility power for servers. Vertiv, gatekeeper to hyperscalers with a backlog above $15B, ordered a 1 MW chiller to demonstrate at its facility, a key validation; even a sliver of attach to Vertiv builds would be transformational against Tecogen's $6.3M quarterly revenue. After a 200%+ rise in under two months, a pullback is expected. x.comÂ
Tecogen is at an inflection point, and more deals look like a matter of time. It has sold its first unit and is just getting started: it is talking to numerous potential customers, management is hosting demonstrations for well-known data centers, and insiders bought recently. Many holders have exited out of impatience; a skeptic replying calls it dead money after a year in which it sold one chiller to Vertiv. x.comÂ
Vertiv's surging orders and Q3 growth show AI infrastructure demand exceeding expectations. Per WallStEngine, revenue rose 61% to $4.3B, adjusted EPS rose 78% to $2.21, organic orders grew more than 100%, and FY26 guidance was raised above estimates. Vertiv is delivering into accelerating demand for its power and cooling equipment. x.com x.comÂ
Tecogen could easily double once its business partner Vertiv starts promoting its data-center cooling products. x.comÂ
Tecogen's team is not one to bet on, having failed to execute. Mapping its org chart shows the team isn't serious, and investors in its fundraise appear to have flipped long ago. The setup would be appealing if the company could deliver, but Vertiv is likely to prefer having Solar Turbines build whatever capabilities it needs. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Vertiv's power and cooling gear is benefiting from the AI data-center build-out. Q3 net sales rose 61%, operating profit 90% and net income 92%. There is no more direct picks-and-shovels bet on AI infrastructure than Vertiv. Grade: A. x.comÂ
Modine's AI data-center cooling demand and rising backlog, at a fraction of Vertiv's valuation, make it one of the best risk-reward setups in the entire AI infrastructure sector right now. Its backlog has nearly doubled over the past year; Q1 revenue rose 28% to $874 million, and FY2027 sales growth guidance is 20-35%. Modine reportedly secured a Google cooling deal worth over $4 billion through 2027-29. At an $8 billion market cap, $300-plus is the target. x.comÂ
Vertiv's growth and cash flow make its valuation the better risk/reward than Bloom Energy at these prices. It is the one I'd buy first for a long-term hold: 23x next year's earnings with 37% EPS growth, nearly $3B in free cash flow and almost no net debt. Adjusted operating profit of $1.087B topped the $938M guidance ceiling; revenue and EPS also beat estimates. x.comÂ
AI data centers need cooling, electricity and transmission, sustaining the case for Vertiv, GE Vernova and Quanta Services. Vertiv's sales rose 26% in the past year; its systems cool AI chips. GE Vernova is the go-to power trade for its gas turbines. Quanta builds the lines to data centers and has a record $53B backlog. x.com x.com x.comÂ
On-site power management would help Vertiv tackle a major AI data-center bottleneck. Its planned acquisition of UtilityInnovation Group would add that expertise alongside its power and cooling equipment. x.comÂ
Meta's unmet AI demand pays its bottleneck suppliers. Super Micro's $19.5B quarterly outlook and under 8x forward earnings point to a double. CoreWeave's Meta deals total $35.2B; it should easily top $100. Builders say nearly all new sites use Dell or Super Micro; Dell could easily double. Micron's demand is off the charts at 5x forward earnings. Sources say Vertiv's gear is sold out for 2-3 years. VivoPower has 2GW+ potential in 5-7 years. Digi Power X has a $1.1B Cerebras deal. x.com x.com … Show more
Vertiv's demand is accelerating, so GLJ Research's $188 target against a $255 stock and a consensus near $350 looks badly wrong. Vertiv's orders doubled and deferred revenue just posted the biggest jump in company history; customers prepaying at records is not how a cyclical downturn starts. GLJ's similar sell call on GE Vernova as a cyclical turbine maker failed: the stock now trades above $1,000, over double its target, and its CEO is selling delivery slots for 2032. x.comÂ
