Martin Bradstreet
Investor & Programmer, Former Poker Player
Tecogen's team is not one to bet on, having failed to execute. Mapping its org chart shows the team isn't serious, and investors in its fundraise appear to have flipped long ago. The setup would be appealing if the company could deliver, but Vertiv is likely to prefer having Solar Turbines build whatever capabilities it needs. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Vertiv is a great company that should be a long-term winner even if it struggles short term. In the near term there is cautious optimism that it holds its new floor in the $250s. Its market cap is too high for personal buying right now, though. x.comÂ
Vertiv is a great company, supplying the power and cooling AI data centers need as rack densities climb past 100kW, with its cooling systems a major draw. Its liquid-cooling, power, heat-rejection and prefabricated modular systems bring more of the data-center stack under one roof, which could become a meaningful competitive advantage. Grid power and thermal capacity, not silicon supply, are now the limiting factor in AI. x.com x.comÂ
Tecogen could easily double once its business partner Vertiv starts promoting its data-center cooling products. x.comÂ
On-site power management would help Vertiv tackle a major AI data-center bottleneck. Its planned acquisition of UtilityInnovation Group would add that expertise alongside its power and cooling equipment. x.comÂ
Vertiv's demand is accelerating, so GLJ Research's $188 target against a $255 stock and a consensus near $350 looks badly wrong. Vertiv's orders doubled and deferred revenue just posted the biggest jump in company history; customers prepaying at records is not how a cyclical downturn starts. GLJ's similar sell call on GE Vernova as a cyclical turbine maker failed: the stock now trades above $1,000, over double its target, and its CEO is selling delivery slots for 2032. x.comÂ
Tecogen's chillers attack AI data centers' binding constraint, grid power, by shifting cooling to natural gas and freeing up to 30% of utility power for servers. Vertiv, gatekeeper to hyperscalers with a backlog above $15B, ordered a 1 MW chiller to demonstrate at its facility, a key validation; even a sliver of attach to Vertiv builds would be transformational against Tecogen's $6.3M quarterly revenue. After a 200%+ rise in under two months, a pullback is expected. x.comÂ
Vertiv is likely to do well as the AI buildout expands, and the market is making the same mistake on it twice; it remains a buy. x.comÂ
Vertiv's 49x forward multiple leaves no room for error: demand is fine, but the valuation isn't. It beat on EPS and raised full-year guidance yet fell 11% on one soft revenue line tied to lumpy project timing. x.comÂ
Solaris Energy Infrastructure is a very cheap way to play the US power build-out, now expanding to 3.1GW on booming demand from customers like xAI. Two deals add 900 MW of turbines: 400 MW via the Genco Power acquisition and about 500 MW of turbine delivery slots. The $1.55B cost, about $1.73M per MW, is well above prior purchases, but the company sees clear line of sight to deploy. Stifel estimates the added 900 MW could lift 2028 EBITDA about $300M above the $760M expected, about $15 a share. … Show more
Vertiv could be a big thematic loser if data centers move to space, where liquid cooling is not needed. Given the SpaceX IPO and Vertiv's valuation above 45x NTM earnings, its terminal value deserves questioning. x.comÂ
