TBU
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Commentary
SpaceX's $2T valuation may price in orbital data centers that remain a distant vision. Its operating business is essentially a scaled neocloud and internet provider, raising the question of whether current operations justify that valuation. x.comÂ
Vertiv is a great company, supplying the power and cooling AI data centers need as rack densities climb past 100kW, with its cooling systems a major draw. Its liquid-cooling, power, heat-rejection and prefabricated modular systems bring more of the data-center stack under one roof, which could become a meaningful competitive advantage. Grid power and thermal capacity, not silicon supply, are now the limiting factor in AI. x.com x.comÂ
Vertiv's surging orders and Q3 growth show AI infrastructure demand exceeding expectations. Per WallStEngine, revenue rose 61% to $4.3B, adjusted EPS rose 78% to $2.21, organic orders grew more than 100%, and FY26 guidance was raised above estimates. Vertiv is delivering into accelerating demand for its power and cooling equipment. x.com x.comÂ
NVIDIA's liquid-cooling work with Vertiv can deliver more compute from a fixed power budget. Liquid cooling yields roughly 22% more compute and more tokens from the same power on average, a benefit modeled in an April report. NVIDIA's scale, balance sheet and command of its supply chain make it the economic winner of the AI compute cycle, with Broadcom a close-ish second. x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
Vertiv's growth and cash flow make its valuation the better risk/reward than Bloom Energy at these prices. It is the one I'd buy first for a long-term hold: 23x next year's earnings with 37% EPS growth, nearly $3B in free cash flow and almost no net debt. Adjusted operating profit of $1.087B topped the $938M guidance ceiling; revenue and EPS also beat estimates. x.comÂ
Tecogen could easily double once its business partner Vertiv starts promoting its data-center cooling products. x.comÂ
Munters Group is a cheaper way to own AI data-center cooling, since compute creates heat that has to leave the building. Q2 orders rose 137% to SEK 8.7bn, and data-center book-to-bill hit 3.6x, pushing backlog into 2028. It trades around 28x 2026 earnings versus about 47x forward for Vertiv; lower margins and higher debt justify only part of that. Data-center margin fell to 11.3%; a Q3 margin not above 12% would undercut the case, and two straight quarters of falling orders would break it. x.comÂ
Vertiv's power and cooling gear is benefiting from the AI data-center build-out. Q3 net sales rose 61%, operating profit 90% and net income 92%. There is no more direct picks-and-shovels bet on AI infrastructure than Vertiv. Grade: A. x.comÂ
Orbital data centers may take far longer than investors expect, if they happen at all. SpaceX sells compute on Earth and invests in power and cooling there, widening the hype-reality gap. SpaceX, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire could be dead money for years while the vision catches up. x.comÂ