SpaceX's roughly $2T valuation is hard to justify while it burns $10B in cash annually and the market expects it to put hundreds of billions of dollars of chips into space next year. x.com 

SpaceX's neocloud-driven valuation is vulnerable to short-notice compute contract exits. Losing contracts with 90-day out clauses could cut $500B from its valuation; at least one out clause appears to be coming in 2027 rather than 2029. Neocloud expectations drive 80% of its current valuation, despite earlier fundraising on Starlink, reusable rockets and Mars. What happened to Amazon in 2000-02 is about to happen to SpaceX by 2030-32. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's addressable market cannot expand without limit because global income bounds customer spending. Even after a roughly $2B revenue beat, its $2T valuation is 17x revenue even if the annualized figure is doubled. x.com 

SpaceX's earnings are nothing phenomenal against its $2 trillion valuation. Its P/E is 2,000 and P/S is 170, with $4.4 billion in profits after losing that much in Q1 2026; another $2 trillion company makes $50-60 billion in net profit. x.com 

SpaceX will be a $10 trillion company, so a roughly $2 trillion entry is not particularly expensive given where it will be in the 2030s. Per @ZaStocks, it just launched Google's TPUs into space, validating space data centers, and flew three missions in under 13 hours while landing four boosters, both firsts. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's capital-intensive super-intelligence business makes its $2 trillion valuation hard to justify. At a reported 6% SI margin, even doubling that margin would require roughly $1 trillion in annual revenue to make the math work, about 18 times current quarterly revenue annualized. The extraordinary outcome is already priced in. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's expansion could dilute shareholders and flood the spot market with compute capacity, making 2027 a potential disaster despite this quarter's results. A large share of its proposed capacity would go to the spot market, unlike Meta's internally used capacity; valuing it as if peak spot prices last forever ignores that risk. SpaceX should be down, not up, on that outlook. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's near-monopoly in global satellite internet, built on reusable rockets, should generate enormous cash flow to partly fund its AI compute buildout. Those cash flows should strengthen its credit profile and let it finance the rest more cheaply than pure-play neoclouds CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, which SpaceX makes obsolete. Grok ensures deployed compute earns revenue if customers back out. There is no reason to own a pure-play neocloud when SpaceX is available. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's projected 2027 revenue relies on effectively unlimited demand for data-center rentals at $50 per watt per year, though a data center costs less than $50 per watt to build. Elon Musk assumes 10-20 GW at that rental rate would bring in $500 billion-$1 trillion. Setting that expectation for shareholders is irresponsible at best and hard to distinguish from a scam at worst. x.com