J Keynes
Growth Investment Research
SpaceX will be a $10 trillion company, so a roughly $2 trillion entry is not particularly expensive given where it will be in the 2030s. Per @ZaStocks, it just launched Google's TPUs into space, validating space data centers, and flew three missions in under 13 hours while landing four boosters, both firsts. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's blowout earnings make its somewhat lofty valuation deserved. Elon Musk said it could exit 2027 at $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue, an ambitious forecast that looks achievable for SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's $2T valuation may price in orbital data centers that remain a distant vision. Its operating business is essentially a scaled neocloud and internet provider, raising the question of whether current operations justify that valuation. x.comÂ
SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.comÂ
SpaceX's stronger-than-expected Q3 and surging Space Intelligence business make its valuation look more defensible. Revenue was $14.6 billion versus about $12.9 billion expected, adjusted EBITDA rose 306% to $8.8 billion, and Space Intelligence grew 830% to $7.6 billion, becoming its largest segment. Even half of the $500 billion to $1 trillion ARR Elon Musk is talking about by end-2027 would make the earlier valuation objection wrong; sentiment is now bullish. x.comÂ
SpaceX's earnings are nothing phenomenal against its $2 trillion valuation. Its P/E is 2,000 and P/S is 170, with $4.4 billion in profits after losing that much in Q1 2026; another $2 trillion company makes $50-60 billion in net profit. x.comÂ
SpaceX looks extremely cheap because management's new revenue outlook could shrink its lofty sales multiple if ambitions become lasting profits. CFO Bret Johnsen guided $33-37B in Q1 2027 revenue, and roughly $42B of a $63B backlog is expected to be recognized within a year. At a fixed $1.95T enterprise value, today's 61x trailing sales would fall to about 13-15x on annualized Q1 guidance; Elon Musk's $500B-$1T end-2027 ARR outlook implies 2-4x. The targets still need to be delivered. x.com … Show more
AST SpaceMobile offers higher risk-reward than SpaceX because of the law of large numbers: it can go from $30B to $300B far faster than SpaceX can go from $2T to $20T. SpaceX is a great company that reaches beyond space and is attractive, but its almost $2T valuation is the drawback. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's roughly $2T valuation is hard to justify while it burns $10B in cash annually and the market expects it to put hundreds of billions of dollars of chips into space next year. x.comÂ
SpaceX's revenue growth and raised guidance make its double beat and raise worth liking. Revenue grew 161% year over year, Q1 guidance was raised 67%, and its SI arm is growing extremely fast. Talk of $500 billion to $1 trillion in revenue by 2028 should not get investors too excited. x.comÂ
