Steven Fiorillo
Seeking Alpha Analyst, Basis Point Podcast Co-Host
SpaceX's stronger-than-expected Q3 and surging Space Intelligence business make its valuation look more defensible. Revenue was $14.6 billion versus about $12.9 billion expected, adjusted EBITDA rose 306% to $8.8 billion, and Space Intelligence grew 830% to $7.6 billion, becoming its largest segment. Even half of the $500 billion to $1 trillion ARR Elon Musk is talking about by end-2027 would make the earlier valuation objection wrong; sentiment is now bullish. x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's surging AI revenue and Starlink profits could make today's expensive valuation look cheaper as earnings catch up. Q3 revenue rose 161% to $14.6B; Super Intelligence brought in $7.6B, Starlink earned $2.37B in operating income, and backlog reached $63B. Q1 2027 revenue guidance is $33B-$37B versus ~$22B expected. A path to $200/share depends on meeting guidance and sustaining compute pricing and utilization; $35B-$40B in Q4 capex brings financing, dilution and execution risks. x.comÂ
SpaceX's capital-intensive super-intelligence business makes its $2 trillion valuation hard to justify. At a reported 6% SI margin, even doubling that margin would require roughly $1 trillion in annual revenue to make the math work, about 18 times current quarterly revenue annualized. The extraordinary outcome is already priced in. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's revenue growth and raised guidance make its double beat and raise worth liking. Revenue grew 161% year over year, Q1 guidance was raised 67%, and its SI arm is growing extremely fast. Talk of $500 billion to $1 trillion in revenue by 2028 should not get investors too excited. x.comÂ
SpaceX's AI business and profitable growth challenge calls for its stock to go much lower. Q3 revenue reached $14.6B, up 161%, with $4.4B profit and $7.6B from AI. A Tesla merger is being discussed. x.comÂ
SpaceX's growing connectivity profit improves its business case, but spending still leaves self-funded growth unproven. Starlink users rose from 12m to 13.6m and ARPU from $66 to $69; connectivity earned $2.4B of $2.8B operating profit. The $4.4B net profit includes non-operating and tax gains, while AI's operating margin is about 5.7%. Quarterly capex exceeded revenue at $19.6B, with $35-40B planned for Q4. Valuation still requires evidence of cash returns. x.comÂ
SpaceX's strong earnings give its bullish setup fresh fundamental support. Revenue of $14.58 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $8.81 billion and operating income of $2.79 billion beat expectations, as did connectivity and space revenue; 35 launches and mass to orbit fell short. The shares are also pushing through a cup-and-handle breakout. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.comÂ
SpaceX's revenue ambitions look implausible against current sales and the risk of overbuilding chips. Revenue is $14 billion this quarter, and even the Street's $120 billion forecast for next year looks aggressive. Its costs are within its control, leaving the risk heavily skewed against investors. x.comÂ
SpaceX's blowout earnings make its somewhat lofty valuation deserved. Elon Musk said it could exit 2027 at $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue, an ambitious forecast that looks achievable for SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
