Ted Zhang
Portfolio Manager of Turbotection at Revere Asset Management
SpaceX's revenue growth and raised guidance make its double beat and raise worth liking. Revenue grew 161% year over year, Q1 guidance was raised 67%, and its SI arm is growing extremely fast. Talk of $500 billion to $1 trillion in revenue by 2028 should not get investors too excited. x.comÂ
SpaceX offers long-term exposure to rockets, Starlink, AI and potentially Tesla's autonomous vehicles, batteries and robots if the companies merge. The Tesla merger is an assumption, with a cited 60% probability by end-2027, not a certainty. This is the mega-empire to bet on for the future, but do not chase it when extended. x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's stronger-than-expected Q3 and surging Space Intelligence business make its valuation look more defensible. Revenue was $14.6 billion versus about $12.9 billion expected, adjusted EBITDA rose 306% to $8.8 billion, and Space Intelligence grew 830% to $7.6 billion, becoming its largest segment. Even half of the $500 billion to $1 trillion ARR Elon Musk is talking about by end-2027 would make the earlier valuation objection wrong; sentiment is now bullish. x.comÂ
SpaceX's revenue ambitions look implausible against current sales and the risk of overbuilding chips. Revenue is $14 billion this quarter, and even the Street's $120 billion forecast for next year looks aggressive. Its costs are within its control, leaving the risk heavily skewed against investors. x.comÂ
SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.comÂ
SpaceX's strong earnings give its bullish setup fresh fundamental support. Revenue of $14.58 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $8.81 billion and operating income of $2.79 billion beat expectations, as did connectivity and space revenue; 35 launches and mass to orbit fell short. The shares are also pushing through a cup-and-handle breakout. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's addressable market cannot expand without limit because global income bounds customer spending. Even after a roughly $2B revenue beat, its $2T valuation is 17x revenue even if the annualized figure is doubled. x.comÂ
SpaceX's broad quarterly beat supports a set-it-and-forget-it stance. Revenue, EBITDA, operating income and EPS beat expectations; gross margin was 62% versus 59% expected and operating margin 19% versus 12%, with capex in line. x.comÂ
SpaceX's blowout earnings make its somewhat lofty valuation deserved. Elon Musk said it could exit 2027 at $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue, an ambitious forecast that looks achievable for SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's earnings are nothing phenomenal against its $2 trillion valuation. Its P/E is 2,000 and P/S is 170, with $4.4 billion in profits after losing that much in Q1 2026; another $2 trillion company makes $50-60 billion in net profit. x.comÂ
SpaceX looks extremely cheap because management's new revenue outlook could shrink its lofty sales multiple if ambitions become lasting profits. CFO Bret Johnsen guided $33-37B in Q1 2027 revenue, and roughly $42B of a $63B backlog is expected to be recognized within a year. At a fixed $1.95T enterprise value, today's 61x trailing sales would fall to about 13-15x on annualized Q1 guidance; Elon Musk's $500B-$1T end-2027 ARR outlook implies 2-4x. The targets still need to be delivered. x.com … Show more
