Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Amprius still has room to run, as forecasts of about $670 million in FY29 revenue mean a roughly $3 billion company today can grow into a larger value. At 20 times sales it is getting pricey, but expected growth of about 70–80% a year makes that multiple still reasonable. Much of the easy money has been made, though: it is a stock to hold in a bull market but to exit quickly if conditions turn bearish. x.com
Amprius Technologies could roughly triple if it meets analyst growth forecasts. Analysts see about $670 million of revenue and $150 million of EBITDA by FY29, a 74% compound growth rate. Even at 10x revenue, 30-40% below today's multiple, that implies a $6.7 billion enterprise value against $2.2 billion now, and few companies growing this fast while EBITDA-profitable trade below 15x sales. It is a higher-risk, higher-reward play that has been outperforming on up days. x.com
Amprius could trade above $30 within 6-12 months after raising 2026 revenue guidance to at least $140M, provided the broader market holds up. It reiterated a net loss under $10M, is improving GAAP gross margin, has new orders and has a clean balance sheet. x.com x.com
Amprius remains a long-term bullish holding despite short-term noise: Q1 revenue was strong and the FY26 revenue outlook was raised. The stock's drop likely reflects an EPS miss plus a sell-the-news reaction after its recent run, since in names like this expectations matter as much as results. x.com
Amprius looks expensive and its chart looks more like a short than a long. At just under 18x forward sales on current shares and about 22x fully diluted, versus a 12x fair value for high-growth companies, it is pricey even on a $135 million 2026 revenue estimate above guidance, with a 33 million-share overhang. After earnings it broke its 9, 21 and 50-day averages and was rejected at the falling 21-day, making it a near-term short on rallies, though the quarter itself was good. x.com x.com
Amprius Technologies' 27% post-earnings drop is an overreaction to a 2-cent EPS miss, and a quick turnaround looks likely. Revenue hit a record $28.5M, up 153% and 11% above estimates; gross profit rose 343%, the net loss narrowed 46% and gross margin reached 20%, or 22% excluding one-time Colorado costs. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to at least $130M. Its NDAA-compliant silicon-anode batteries, with twice lithium-ion's energy density, supply Pentagon drone programs. x.com
