CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
Amprius Technologies' 27% post-earnings drop is an overreaction to a 2-cent EPS miss, and a quick turnaround looks likely. Revenue hit a record $28.5M, up 153% and 11% above estimates; gross profit rose 343%, the net loss narrowed 46% and gross margin reached 20%, or 22% excluding one-time Colorado costs. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to at least $130M. Its NDAA-compliant silicon-anode batteries, with twice lithium-ion's energy density, supply Pentagon drone programs. x.com
Amprius Technologies' thesis has only strengthened, because every drone is limited by battery life and its silicon-anode batteries offer up to 500 Wh/kg, twice conventional lithium-ion. The military is buying drones at unprecedented scale, and the DoD is cutting Chinese battery suppliers; Amprius is US-based and ahead on NDAA compliance. Nokia Drone Networks selected its SiCore batteries. 2025 revenue tripled to $73M, adjusted EBITDA turned positive, and 2026 guidance is $125M+. x.com
Amprius could trade above $30 within 6-12 months after raising 2026 revenue guidance to at least $140M, provided the broader market holds up. It reiterated a net loss under $10M, is improving GAAP gross margin, has new orders and has a clean balance sheet. x.com x.com
Amprius Technologies could become a drone-era bottleneck play, the way AI created bottlenecks elsewhere, after the recent government drone news. It makes next-generation silicon-carbon batteries, its largest customer is the Department of War, and it has already supplied many batteries to Ukraine. With abundant liquidity in stocks, the move could have legs, though this is a low-conviction call. x.com
Amprius looks expensive and its chart looks more like a short than a long. At just under 18x forward sales on current shares and about 22x fully diluted, versus a 12x fair value for high-growth companies, it is pricey even on a $135 million 2026 revenue estimate above guidance, with a 33 million-share overhang. After earnings it broke its 9, 21 and 50-day averages and was rejected at the falling 21-day, making it a near-term short on rallies, though the quarter itself was good. x.com x.com
Amprius Technologies is a game-changing pick because it leads lithium batteries with no one close, and its batteries let drones fly twice as long, a major military advantage. Trump just made a massive drone deal. eVTOL aircraft also run on batteries, and Amazon's goal of global drone delivery by 2028 could mean orders for millions of batteries. Revenue is growing fast, though not yet profit, and the stock still has attention without being well known. x.com x.com
Amprius remains a long-term bullish holding despite short-term noise: Q1 revenue was strong and the FY26 revenue outlook was raised. The stock's drop likely reflects an EPS miss plus a sell-the-news reaction after its recent run, since in names like this expectations matter as much as results. x.com
Amprius is a rare opportunity as a drone battery company that is profitable. x.com
Amprius still has room to run, as forecasts of about $670 million in FY29 revenue mean a roughly $3 billion company today can grow into a larger value. At 20 times sales it is getting pricey, but expected growth of about 70–80% a year makes that multiple still reasonable. Much of the easy money has been made, though: it is a stock to hold in a bull market but to exit quickly if conditions turn bearish. x.com
Red Cat's defense orders are moving from testing to mass production, with capacity ready for a surge of orders. Q1 revenue jumped 849% with gross margin up 64.8 points, and Roth Capital's checks say its footprint can support $1 billion of annual output. It is a finalist in the Pentagon's $150 million Drone Dominance Program and won a $742K Army Black Widow contract. With fully US manufacturing and NDAA compliance, it is a prime replacement as Washington shuts out DJI. x.com
