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Founder of Sailboat, On-Chain Trading App
Amprius Technologies could become a drone-era bottleneck play, the way AI created bottlenecks elsewhere, after the recent government drone news. It makes next-generation silicon-carbon batteries, its largest customer is the Department of War, and it has already supplied many batteries to Ukraine. With abundant liquidity in stocks, the move could have legs, though this is a low-conviction call. x.comÂ
Amprius Technologies is a game-changing pick because it leads lithium batteries with no one close, and its batteries let drones fly twice as long, a major military advantage. Trump just made a massive drone deal. eVTOL aircraft also run on batteries, and Amazon's goal of global drone delivery by 2028 could mean orders for millions of batteries. Revenue is growing fast, though not yet profit, and the stock still has attention without being well known. x.com x.comÂ
Amprius is a rare opportunity as a drone battery company that is profitable. x.comÂ
Amprius looks expensive and its chart looks more like a short than a long. At just under 18x forward sales on current shares and about 22x fully diluted, versus a 12x fair value for high-growth companies, it is pricey even on a $135 million 2026 revenue estimate above guidance, with a 33 million-share overhang. After earnings it broke its 9, 21 and 50-day averages and was rejected at the falling 21-day, making it a near-term short on rallies, though the quarter itself was good. x.com x.comÂ
Amprius Technologies' 27% post-earnings drop is an overreaction to a 2-cent EPS miss, and a quick turnaround looks likely. Revenue hit a record $28.5M, up 153% and 11% above estimates; gross profit rose 343%, the net loss narrowed 46% and gross margin reached 20%, or 22% excluding one-time Colorado costs. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to at least $130M. Its NDAA-compliant silicon-anode batteries, with twice lithium-ion's energy density, supply Pentagon drone programs. x.comÂ
Enovix's initial drone-battery order and $216 million drone, defense and industrial pipeline underpin the bullish setup. A dual-use drone maker ordered 100,000 batteries for delivery in the first half of 2027, with follow-on orders expected afterward. Early Q3 revenue rose 38% to $11 million and beat guidance. Friday's call volume was about twice normal; the rounding-bottom setup favors a breakout if shares reclaim and hold $2.97, with targets of $3.59, $4.17 and $5.00. x.comÂ
Trump's 100% tariffs on foreign-made drones should send demand soaring for US drone makers and suppliers. AeroVironment has a $1.2B funded backlog; Kratos has a $2.1B backlog and jet drones with no foreign substitute; Ondas, the fastest grower, posted a record $83.8M quarter. Red Cat's Black Widow is an Army program of record, Unusual Machines makes 15,000 NDAA-compliant motors a month, AIRO has a $163M drone backlog and LightPath's US-made infrared optics become the default. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Drone stocks fell in 2026 even as backlogs hit records: Ukraine turned aircraft into ammunition, and the Pentagon's 2027 request holds nearly $75B for drones and counter-drone. AeroVironment's reordered loitering munitions and Kratos's jet drones are highest conviction. Counter-drone names Ondas, Axon, Motorola Solutions, Safe Pro, DroneShield and Rheinmetall gain as threats grow, Unusual Machines from Chinese-parts bans. Primes bury drone exposure; pure plays may not convert backlog. x.com … Show more
Unusual Machines looks set to catch up with drone and defense peers after lagging them, making it the big winner from reports that the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per the WSJ. Its CEO Allan Evans recently said he was disappointed its stock had not inflected like Kopin, LightPath and Ondas. x.com x.comÂ
Drone market growth to $100 billion by 2030, per Goldman Sachs, should lift five companies. Amazon has made over 100,000 Prime Air drone deliveries in US test markets. Kratos builds pilotless combat jets like the XQ-58 Valkyrie, with a $2 billion backlog and $15 billion pipeline. Ambarella's AI vision chips let drones see in real time. Leonardo DRS, about 80% Pentagon-funded, makes radar that downs enemy drones. Joby already earns from Blade's air taxis while awaiting FAA approval. x.com x.com … Show more
Amprius could trade above $30 within 6-12 months after raising 2026 revenue guidance to at least $140M, provided the broader market holds up. It reiterated a net loss under $10M, is improving GAAP gross margin, has new orders and has a clean balance sheet. x.com x.comÂ
