Trump's 100% tariffs on imported drones, effective September 3, force the largest import substitution the drone industry has seen, favoring US makers. AeroVironment already builds at scale and won a $400M Army laser counter-drone contract; Kratos has a record $2.01B backlog; AEVEX's Phoenix Ghost is combat-proven, with a $503M backlog; Red Cat is the closest public DJI replacement; and Unusual Machines makes motors and flight controllers to replace Chinese parts, which the tariff also hits. … Show more

Drone market growth to $100 billion by 2030, per Goldman Sachs, should lift five companies. Amazon has made over 100,000 Prime Air drone deliveries in US test markets. Kratos builds pilotless combat jets like the XQ-58 Valkyrie, with a $2 billion backlog and $15 billion pipeline. Ambarella's AI vision chips let drones see in real time. Leonardo DRS, about 80% Pentagon-funded, makes radar that downs enemy drones. Joby already earns from Blade's air taxis while awaiting FAA approval. x.com  x.com  … Show more

AEVEX Aerospace actually manufactures drones at scale, while Ondas mostly issues shares, making AEVEX the far better long. AEVEX did $432.9M of 2025 revenue to Ondas's $50.7M at 72% of the market cap, with $503M of funded backlog toward an $800M 2026 guide and 1,000 drones a month from Tampa. Ondas lacks a consolidated US factory, its share count went from 49M to 482M in three years, and it trades at 23-28x forward sales versus AEVEX's 4.5x. AEVEX's October lockup expiry is worth trimming into. … Show more

Drone stocks fell in 2026 even as backlogs hit records: Ukraine turned aircraft into ammunition, and the Pentagon's 2027 request holds nearly $75B for drones and counter-drone. AeroVironment's reordered loitering munitions and Kratos's jet drones are highest conviction. Counter-drone names Ondas, Axon, Motorola Solutions, Safe Pro, DroneShield and Rheinmetall gain as threats grow, Unusual Machines from Chinese-parts bans. Primes bury drone exposure; pure plays may not convert backlog. x.com  … Show more

Drone makers AeroVironment, Kratos and Ondas look set for another strong run after the Trump administration imposed a 100% tariff on foreign-made drones, per @unusual_whales citing the NYT. Defense names including Lockheed Martin, RTX and General Dynamics are easy buys now ahead of a golden era in 2027-2028. As @fundmyfund notes, 2026 has been awful for many of these stocks, but long-term charts show big bases that can fuel powerful moves, and defense funding should arrive in coming weeks. x.com  … Show more

Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Drone and autonomy stocks are where government money is going next, as Trump pursues funding deals to boost domestic drone production. Dell is up over 50% since Trump said to buy it, and drone names could do the same once he announces picks. The list spans AeroVironment, Kratos, Red Cat, Ondas, Draganfly, Unusual Machines, Swarmer and Palladyne AI; counter-drone names DroneShield and L3Harris; and primes Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Textron, General Dynamics and Boeing. x.com  x.com 

US drone stocks such as Ondas, AeroVironment, Kratos, Unusual Machines and Red Cat are set for a legendary rotation as the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per a WSJ report shared by @zerohedge. x.com 

Red Cat's financial future looks uncertain: Q1 revenue was $15.5M against $29.3M of operating expenses, and its 13% gross margin has no clear path to the 30% target. Combat validation for its USVs belongs to a partner platform; its own Valdosta-built vessels are new and unproven in a named theater. It is too concentrated in aerial ISR, and the earnings call did not inspire confidence. Ondas, with 49% gross margins, over $1B raised and EBITDA-positive product units, is more compelling. x.com  … Show more

Drone stocks could go on a tear this fall because drone funding is bipartisan, so a likely Democratic midterm win shouldn't derail the trade. Democrats backed Ukraine war funding and could pass bigger, faster aid. Drone bills, from the Chinese-drone ban to the COUNTER Act, have co-sponsors from both parties, so drones and counter-drones are the least contested part of the $1.5T budget. Nearly every drone stock beat and raised, yet sentiment is still depressed. LightPath stands out. x.com  x.com  … Show more