Korean equities are a long as renewed optimism about the AI trade drives a record 15% jump. x.comÂ
Photon Capital
Photonics & Semiconductor Research
Korean equities have a central role in the AI trade because Samsung and SK hynix supply most of the memory it needs. Despite the shakeout, the KOSPI leads the major markets shown at roughly +36% this year. The bullish lean faces a flow warning: Korean semiconductor ETF 20-day flows fell from nearly +$4B in June to about -$703M by October 18 as the index approaches rising support. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Korean equities have more upside as fresh news confirms the KOSPI deleveraging story laid out two days earlier. The KOSPI rallied premarket on the news, ahead of the US futures open, and Korea is expected to open limit up. Conviction in Korea is running even higher. x.comÂ
Korean equities are correcting like an altcoin after moving like one, going from euphoria to a bear market in barely a month. A rush of new investors, leverage and AI-chip hype drove the KOSPI up too fast, and much of the drop is that excess being flushed out, with war fears and rising oil adding pressure. x.comÂ
Korean equities are probably going higher as Samsung and SK hynix move toward capital returns while memory fundamentals strengthen. Multiple banks share the Samsung capital-return thesis, SK hynix says returns are imminent, both cite strong demand and long-term agreements, and Apple says memory prices will rise a lot next quarter. With froth and leverage cleared and hyperscaler revenue accelerating, a healthier rally looks likely, depending partly on a reasonable Iran resolution. x.com x.com … Show more
Korean equities are cheap and deleveraged after a 40% drawdown that did not change their place in the AI buildout. The KOSPI is down about 40% from its June 22 peak, with RSI oversold and forward P/E and P/FCF both near 5x. Oversold and cheap are not bottom signals alone, but recovery requires them. Its leading names make the memory the AI buildout runs on, and that buildout can be profitable early: Microsoft grew operating income 18% to $40.6B while spending near $190B on capex. x.comÂ
Retail leverage and AI concentration have fueled the Korean equities rout. The KOSPI fell more than 14% in a week, its worst weekly decline since 2008. Korean equities will fall further if the rout in SK hynix and Samsung continues, though some dip buyers may already be lining up. x.com x.comÂ
Korean equities' July leverage-driven flush increasingly looks like exhaustion, not a failed AI thesis. The KOSPI rose 3.56% to 6,813, back in bull-market territory more than 20% above its July low, with Samsung up over 5% and SK hynix nearly 8% on reported sovereign-wealth interest and reaccelerating global AI capex. Korean semiconductor exports are running up 155% year over year in early August. x.comÂ
Korean stocks' medium-term case remains strong as one of the most direct beneficiaries of AI memory, though the short term is crowded, fast-rising and heavily leveraged. Per Reuters, Nvidia and SK Group are set to announce a partnership during Jensen Huang's visit, reinforcing SK Hynix's role as a core HBM supplier, and Huang said memory shortages could last years. The KOSPI fell 5.54% on June 5 right after a high, so watch pullback volume, the won and foreign flows. x.comÂ
Korean equities' extreme volatility is a warning, not a buying opportunity, as foreign investors keep exiting into the chip boom. Foreign capital has been a net seller for five straight months, over $32 billion in June alone, amid fears of AI over-investment and an earnings peak, while retail leveraged single-stock ETFs stretch technicals; the KOSPI has hit seven circuit breakers this year. A 3% GDP forecast upgrade doesn't change that, and a Bank of Korea hike could force a reset. x.comÂ
Korean equities look past the earnings selloff because fundamentals never changed and sentiment is catching up. The KOSPI turned green with foreign investors net buyers two days straight and institutions buying hard, while Samsung is stabilizing after its post-earnings-beat volatility. It is not all clear, but an end to earnings selling is usually a good sign, as Sandisk and AMD showed with turbulence into an aggressive rally. x.comÂ