Nic Puckrin
Co-Founder & CEO of Coin Bureau
Korean stocks face a leverage-driven crash, as more than $30 billion in daily-rebalancing leveraged products tied to Samsung and SK Hynix are forced to sell as prices fall. The two dominate the KOSPI, which has already fallen 25% in a month, and forced selling is feeding more forced selling. Korea has warned first before: its 1997 currency collapse, its chip stocks topping ahead of the 2000 Nasdaq crash and its 2008 breakdown before Lehman. x.comÂ
South Korean equities look like a bubble about to burst because the KOSPI's 3.5x rise in 12 months, from 2,500 to above 8,500, rests on just two companies, Samsung and SK hynix. An index that concentrated is a trade, not a market, and parabolic trades like this break hard. x.comÂ
Korean equities have a central role in the AI trade because Samsung and SK hynix supply most of the memory it needs. Despite the shakeout, the KOSPI leads the major markets shown at roughly +36% this year. The bullish lean faces a flow warning: Korean semiconductor ETF 20-day flows fell from nearly +$4B in June to about -$703M by October 18 as the index approaches rising support. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Korean equities look like a leveraged mania in which money arrived faster than judgment, and borrowers may not survive the drawdown. Samsung and SK Hynix now make up over 54% of the KOSPI, up from 16% in 2016, and margin loans hit a record 36 trillion won, double a year ago, as Koreans surrendered insurance policies to buy stocks. On July 14 Samsung fell 10.70% and SK Hynix 15.37%, and the KOSPI sits near 6,750 from above 8,000. The businesses and the AI buildout remain real. x.comÂ
South Korean stocks are losing market confidence as foreign investors keep selling. The KOSPI fell as much as 5% in a day, triggering a 5-minute halt on program selling, with SK hynix down more than 8% and Samsung nearly 6%. Foreigners have sold since July 28 while retail investors bought every dip. The pause can slow the selling but can't restore confidence. x.comÂ
Korean equities' July leverage-driven flush increasingly looks like exhaustion, not a failed AI thesis. The KOSPI rose 3.56% to 6,813, back in bull-market territory more than 20% above its July low, with Samsung up over 5% and SK hynix nearly 8% on reported sovereign-wealth interest and reaccelerating global AI capex. Korean semiconductor exports are running up 155% year over year in early August. x.comÂ
Korean equities are vulnerable as leveraged domestic retail buyers, who replaced massive foreign withdrawals as the source of SK Hynix and Samsung demand, are being forced out. Per @SamanthaLaDuc, Korea's Financial Supervisory Service reported 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts hit margin calls on July 13, and 320K-360K were fully liquidated. x.comÂ
Korean equities look more and more like a 2026 version of the 2018 XIV ETF collapse, propped up by leveraged flows. Per @infraa_, CSOP's 2x SK hynix ETF accounts for 60% of SK hynix's daily turnover, and SK hynix makes up 30% of the KOSPI. x.comÂ
Korean equities' 2026 crashes were forced-liquidation flushes, not a broken thesis, and memory earnings and exports will carry KOSPI back up. All four circuit-breaker days came from external or technical shocks, a war-driven oil spike, a crowded AI unwind and foreign outflows, amplified by record retail margin debt above 38tn won; none came from Korean earnings breaking. SK Hynix just posted record revenue at a 72% operating margin. The real risk is the memory cycle itself rolling over. x.comÂ
Korea's KOSPI is dangerously concentrated, with Samsung and SK hynix making up 54% of the index, and a 90% rise in six months looks like euphoria and a top. Per @epictrades1, citing Korea's Financial Supervisory Service, over 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts faced margin calls by July 13, and roughly 320,000-360,000 were forcibly liquidated. Index dominance by so few stocks works until it doesn't, and latecomers become exit liquidity. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ