Thierry from arvy
CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing
Korean equities look like a leveraged mania in which money arrived faster than judgment, and borrowers may not survive the drawdown. Samsung and SK Hynix now make up over 54% of the KOSPI, up from 16% in 2016, and margin loans hit a record 36 trillion won, double a year ago, as Koreans surrendered insurance policies to buy stocks. On July 14 Samsung fell 10.70% and SK Hynix 15.37%, and the KOSPI sits near 6,750 from above 8,000. The businesses and the AI buildout remain real. x.com
Korean equities show the signature of a late-stage mania. Samsung and SK hynix have grown from 16% of the Kospi in 2016 to 54%, a record for any major market, so the index inherits two chipmakers' swings in one commodity industry. The Kospi has been halted seven times this year, once after an 8% one-day drop, and near-10% swings at all-time highs with little progress mark a top, not a bottom. Korea now has 102 million trading accounts for 52 million people. x.com x.com x.com
Retail leverage and AI concentration have fueled the Korean equities rout. The KOSPI fell more than 14% in a week, its worst weekly decline since 2008. Korean equities will fall further if the rout in SK hynix and Samsung continues, though some dip buyers may already be lining up. x.com x.com
Korean equities are vulnerable as leveraged domestic retail buyers, who replaced massive foreign withdrawals as the source of SK Hynix and Samsung demand, are being forced out. Per @SamanthaLaDuc, Korea's Financial Supervisory Service reported 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts hit margin calls on July 13, and 320K-360K were fully liquidated. x.com
Korean equities have a central role in the AI trade because Samsung and SK hynix supply most of the memory it needs. Despite the shakeout, the KOSPI leads the major markets shown at roughly +36% this year. The bullish lean faces a flow warning: Korean semiconductor ETF 20-day flows fell from nearly +$4B in June to about -$703M by October 18 as the index approaches rising support. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Korean stocks face a leverage-driven crash, as more than $30 billion in daily-rebalancing leveraged products tied to Samsung and SK Hynix are forced to sell as prices fall. The two dominate the KOSPI, which has already fallen 25% in a month, and forced selling is feeding more forced selling. Korea has warned first before: its 1997 currency collapse, its chip stocks topping ahead of the 2000 Nasdaq crash and its 2008 breakdown before Lehman. x.com
Korean equities' forced deleveraging is not over, with the first stage of margin calls now under way. Brokers auto-liquidated 360,000 accounts, 62% of them held by under-35s who used margin and 2x leveraged ETFs, per @Normal_2610. KOSPI margin loans hit a record KRW 38.63tn in late June, retail losses from borrowed money reached KRW 2.15tn in a month, and the government opened a debt counseling hotline. The liquidation phase is still continuing. x.com x.com x.com
Korean equities' July leverage-driven flush increasingly looks like exhaustion, not a failed AI thesis. The KOSPI rose 3.56% to 6,813, back in bull-market territory more than 20% above its July low, with Samsung up over 5% and SK hynix nearly 8% on reported sovereign-wealth interest and reaccelerating global AI capex. Korean semiconductor exports are running up 155% year over year in early August. x.com
South Korean equities look like a bubble about to burst because the KOSPI's 3.5x rise in 12 months, from 2,500 to above 8,500, rests on just two companies, Samsung and SK hynix. An index that concentrated is a trade, not a market, and parabolic trades like this break hard. x.com
Samsung Electronics faces downside risk because its parabolic run has made market expectations unrealistic, so one mistake could release gravity. Wall Street Engine's Q3 highlights showed revenue, operating profit and net profit below estimates despite triple-digit year-over-year growth. x.com
Korean equities' 2026 crashes were forced-liquidation flushes, not a broken thesis, and memory earnings and exports will carry KOSPI back up. All four circuit-breaker days came from external or technical shocks, a war-driven oil spike, a crowded AI unwind and foreign outflows, amplified by record retail margin debt above 38tn won; none came from Korean earnings breaking. SK Hynix just posted record revenue at a 72% operating margin. The real risk is the memory cycle itself rolling over. x.com
Korea's KOSPI is dangerously concentrated, with Samsung and SK hynix making up 54% of the index, and a 90% rise in six months looks like euphoria and a top. Per @epictrades1, citing Korea's Financial Supervisory Service, over 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts faced margin calls by July 13, and roughly 320,000-360,000 were forcibly liquidated. Index dominance by so few stocks works until it doesn't, and latecomers become exit liquidity. x.com x.com x.com x.com
