Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Frequency Electronics now has faster projected three-year growth than Rocket Lab at a much lower forward sales multiple. It trades at 8x next-twelve-month sales for 34% growth, versus Rocket Lab at 25x for 31%, Microchip at 7x for 15%, and L3Harris at 2x for 7%. Nothing else in the space sector comes close except Redwire and Planet Labs, which have shown far less relative strength. x.comÂ
Frequency Electronics delivered monster earnings, with revenue up 70% and backlog up 82% year over year, and if margin trends continue the upside is large. Its atomic clocks are the invisible timing layer behind satellites, missiles, GPS and military communications, and it is one of the few space names near all-time highs. At about a $700M market cap, it remains one of the riskier plays. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's growing Space Systems business positions it to provide more than launches for the space economy. It generated $189.5M in Q2, 81% of revenue; if its pending Iridium acquisition closes, it would gain a global satellite communications network. At about $51, this is one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in the space sector over 3-5 years, provided it keeps executing. Neutron's launch has slipped to 2027, and execution risks remain. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are not buys because their sales multiples are too high, even after the selloff. Rocket Lab trades at 30x sales after a 14% drawdown, while AST SpaceMobile trades at 138x sales. x.comÂ
Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com x.comÂ
Repeated Neutron delays undermine the premium on Rocket Lab stock when execution keeps slipping. The company does not live or die by Neutron, but 50x sales was unjustified; even at 26x 2027 sales, a legitimate price suggests another 50% decline. x.com x.comÂ
Analysts' average 12-month targets sit far above current prices, implying massive upside for six stocks. The implied gains are 188% for IREN, 226% for Applied Digital, 100% for Rocket Lab, 113% for Applied Optoelectronics, 125% for CoreWeave and 211% for Ondas. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab look more lucrative as shorts than semiconductors, given extreme sales multiples. Rocket Lab trades at 127x sales at $150, and AST SpaceMobile at 588x at $130 after already missing its Q1 revenue target. Both could rise another 30-50% first, making now or the week of June 22 the window to short, and still trade at $50-60 a share in 12-15 months. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is still expensive at 30x next year's sales even after falling 60%. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is becoming a vertically integrated space enterprise, putting it in a different league from AST SpaceMobile. It is one of only two companies that can routinely launch to orbit, and Electron's backlog is booming after its largest commercial contract ever, 20 launches for Synspective, bringing that customer to 47. Neutron is likely in early 2027. At about twice AST's market cap, that gap should keep growing over the years even if both succeed. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's 58% drop from its high on the Iridium deal financing is the entry for a five-year hold. The $8B Iridium acquisition adds a 66-satellite constellation with over $870M of annual revenue, turning a launch company into an end-to-end space business. Revenue grew 62% to $234M last quarter, backlog rose 137% to $2.36B with a record 90+ launches booked, Electron is 13 for 13 this year, and Neutron is targeted for the pad in Q4. x.comÂ
