Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab's bounce has room to run to $65 after buyers returned following shipment of Neutron's second stage to its Virginia launch site. A break above $65 before November 9 results remains the real test. x.com 

Rocket Lab could face a difficult 9-12 months because much of the space industry's future is already priced into equity valuations, even as its business and backlog grow. A monthly close below the $61 21-month EMA would raise the risk that the uptrend has ended and shift attention toward $35-45 for a better long-term entry; holding $61 preserves a more constructive reading. The company could still trade considerably higher over a longer horizon. x.com 

Rocket Lab has legitimate buying behind it, visible in weekly volume, and could take out $100 this time, perhaps after a pullback, helped by the SpaceX IPO pump. Prior highs around $98-100 are the resistance to clear. x.com 

Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.com 

Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab is being disrespected given the pivotal role it should play in an exponentially growing rocket and space industry, even with SpaceX as the front-runner. The stock should get back above $100. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab should see money flow back once SpaceX's rich valuation corrects. SpaceX's listing day could be sell-the-news, pulling Rocket Lab back to $90-100 at most, but at roughly 90-100x sales it is valued about the same as SpaceX at around 115x. With expected Nasdaq inclusion on June 22 and capital rotating from SpaceX into quality space stocks, a lower-high move toward the $130 target banks just raised is possible. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab's roughly $80 billion valuation, including its newly announced $3 billion dilution, would require $3-4 billion in profit to be reasonable, and there is no scenario where it earns $3 billion within three years. The market can stay illogical longer than expected, so it could still run 50% before crashing 80%; the same applies to AST SpaceMobile. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab's program delays carry a financing cost, not just a later date, because development spending continues while expected customer cash moves out. In a September sensitivity, a $1.25B equity raise at $70 would issue about 17.9M shares, while at $50 it would take 25M, about 7.1M more; this is not a price forecast or a predicted raise. Even with eventual technical success, bridging a longer gap on worse terms could leave existing shareholders owning less of the result. x.com