CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
Sony might be a big winner if rising memory costs and GTA 6 push gamers to buy a PlayStation 5 before further price increases. After Apple's price hikes, people know memory is driving electronics prices higher, and GTA 6 releases this year. In-game purchases and PS Plus subscriptions add to the case, while most investors see only Take-Two as the obvious play. @michaelsikand argues demand is inelastic enough that Sony will sell every PlayStation it can make this fiscal year. x.comÂ
GTA VI demand appears strong enough for Sony's PS5 price increases driven by memory costs to stick. Bloomberg reports PS5 sales jumped 22% because of GTA VI, supporting the holiday demand-inelasticity thesis. Sony has yet to guide the game into sales and profits; November guidance is the next test. x.comÂ
Sony is fighting semiconductor shortages, tariffs and rising prices, and is preparing its first US bond offering in about 30 years. Its profit fell 60% to $500 million last quarter before sales fell off a cliff this quarter. x.comÂ
The new Spider-Man film could lift three stocks across its ecosystem. Sony owns the film rights, and the movie is tracking for a $250 million opening; the target is $29, 35% upside for a stock down 19% this year. Hasbro holds major Marvel toy rights, and every kid leaving the theater will want a Spider-Man figure; its target is $113, 43% upside. Cinemark sells the seats, with revenue up 19%, EBITDA up 143% and a $35 target. Wall Street may be sleeping on the trade. x.comÂ
Take-Two is a bullish, hero-or-zero bet on GTA VI. x.comÂ
Take-Two looks like a screaming opportunity at these levels, and with GTA 6 around the corner the stock should pop. x.comÂ
GTA 6 will not be delayed, making Take-Two a buy. x.comÂ
Netflix's problems are solvable while it prints money, making the stock a bargain at this price with a huge moat and great franchise. Its strategy should include more movies in theaters, sports only at a reasonable cost, a fixed ad business, and buying Take-Two to own a game studio and IP; GTA6 is a huge opportunity to connect with younger viewers and run ads in-game. x.com x.comÂ
Take-Two is down more than 25% from its all-time highs with GTA VI coming out in two months. x.comÂ
Take-Two stock should rip on GTA 6's release given an unprecedented marketing push. South Park mentions the game multiple times every episode all year, and per @SynthPotato, the Miami Heat will wear GTA 6-themed uniforms in a Vice City-themed stadium on November 18, a day before launch, in partnership with Rockstar. x.comÂ